Beyond Occupancy: What Should Revenue Leaders Be Asking Now?

For much of senior living’s recovery, the objective was clear: rebuild occupancy.

That focus was necessary and, in many cases, successful. Occupancy has steadily improved, and recent NIC research demonstrates a fundamentally different operating environment than just a few years ago. At the same time, strong occupancy gains have not translated into equally strong operating performance writ large. Recent NIC articles, including “The Great Tightening: How Senior Housing Is Entering a New Occupancy Era” and “The Margin Test: Is Strong Senior Housing Occupancy Translating into Operating Performance?”, highlight an industry entering a new phase, one where occupancy alone is no longer the performance differentiator.

As a revenue leader, I find that shift increasingly noteworthy.

Occupancy was never the destination. It was the mechanism for growth. The goal was always to create communities capable of delivering exceptional resident outcomes today while continuing to be able to invest in tomorrow. As occupancy becomes less of a growth story, it’s time to ask a different set of questions.

If occupancy growth moderates, where does future growth come from?

For much of the industry’s recovery, filling vacant apartments created a relatively straightforward path to improved performance. In a tighter market, future growth may depend less on occupancy gains and more on how effectively operators manage the opportunities already in front of them.

Are we managing revenue with the same rigor we apply to expenses?

Operators have spent years refining labor management, procurement strategies, and operating efficiencies. Revenue deserves the same level of discipline and intentionality. Long-term performance depends on both sides of the equation.

How do we balance affordability with the increasing cost of delivering quality?

Residents and families deserve communities that invest in their buildings, staffing, dining, technology, and programming to deliver consistently high-quality care and service. At the same time, affordability is a very real consideration for the families we serve. Navigating both realities thoughtfully is one of the most important responsibilities leaders face.

Are today’s decisions strengthening tomorrow’s organization?

Not every decision should be evaluated solely on its immediate impact. Revenue strategies should be examined through a longer lens: are we making decisions today that strengthen the organization’s ability to perform over time?

Are we generating the capacity to reinvest?

Communities must continually invest in their buildings, associates, technology, and services to meet evolving resident expectations. Those investments are not separate from the resident experience. They are what sustain it.

That is why revenue strategy cannot be separated from mission. Sustainable revenue creates the capacity to reinvest in the people, places, and services residents depend on. Without it, even mission-driven organizations eventually face difficult tradeoffs.

The next chapter of senior living will require more than full buildings. It will require organizations capable of turning strong demand into sustainable performance while preserving quality, affordability, and the resident experience.

Perhaps that is the most important question of all: How do we create the financial capacity to keep getting better?

#NICFall26

Future Leaders Council Celebrates Graduates and Welcomes New Members

NIC congratulates the Future Leaders Council (FLC) Class of 2026, who were honored at the Fall Conference in Chicago, IL. Over three years, these leaders shaped strategic projects, served on committees, and shared their expertise through thoughtful content and programming. As graduates, they now join the cadre of FLC alumni who are making their mark on NIC and across the senior housing and care industry.

The Class of 2026 graduates are:

  • Brittany Spicer, Chair, Director, Business Development, National Health Services
  • Morgan Graphman, Vice Chair, Sr. Director of Business Intelligence and Asset Management, Charter Senior Living
  • Josh Bagley, Executive Director, Kisco Senior Living
  • Zach Britton, Director, Locust Point Capital
  • Shashank Goel, Head of Senior Housing, Landmark Properties
  • Sean Hladky, Vice President of Finance, Cantex Continuing Care Network
  • Janice Loper, Senior Vice President, Hamilton Insurance
  • Katie Meyer, Senior Vice President of Operations, Renew REIT
  • Joelle Poe, Vice President of Strategy, SafelyYou
  • Anthony Wilson, Division Vice President, Trilogy Health Services

“Our FLC graduates have done more than complete a term. They’ve shaped NIC’s work and brought fresh perspective to the industry,” said Raymond Braun, NIC’s president and CEO. “As they join a growing community of alumni, I’m confident they’ll keep making significant contributions, and I look forward to seeing what they do next.”

NIC is also pleased to welcome the incoming FLC members:

  • Christopher Butigian, Senior Director, Trustwell Living
  • Brendan Cavanaugh, Vice President of Investment & Asset Management, Priority Life Care
  • Manny Cominsky, Co-Founder & CEO, Sunbound
  • Tye Gabriel, Senior Executive Director, Generations
  • William Harrison, Senior Director of Investments, Benchmark Senior Living
  • Rebecca Himes, Director, Asset Management, National Health Investors
  • David Hoogmoed, Vice President of Acquisitions, Green Courte Partners
  • Matt Rezkalla, Chief Investment Officer, Agemark Senior Living
  • McKenzie Sauer, Senior Director of Health Services, Brightwater Senior Living
  • Ryan Snow, Director of Business Development, LCB Senior Living
  • Chris Spence, Vice President – Real Estate, MidCap Financial

The 2026–2027 FLC Leadership Team will lead their peers, partner with NIC staff, and champion the council’s initiatives in the coming year:

  • Mike McMillen, Chair, Executive Vice President of Sales, SafelyYou
  • Ilya Gaev, Vice Chair, Partner, HealthTrust
  • Jacob Swint, Vice Chair, VP, Strategic Growth & Operations, National Church Residences
  • Lexi Zager, Vice Chair, VP of Revenue Strategy, Belmont Village Senior Living

NIC sincerely thanks all current and incoming FLC members, and the organizations that support them, for investing in leadership growth and advancing NIC’s mission to expand access and choice for America’s older adults.

Learn more about the FLC here.

Record High Industry Sentiment Reported Among 3,700 NIC Fall Conference Attendees  

Since the NIC Spring Conference in 2024, attendees at each of NIC’s conferences have been asked to report their outlook for the year ahead upon check-in at the event. The question asks, “What is your outlook for the year ahead for senior housing and care?” Response options range from ‘extremely negative’ to ‘extremely positive.’ 

This year’s fall conference set a record with 94.9% of attendees responding, “positive” or “extremely positive.” This compares to a different environment in the spring of 2024 where the capital environment was less favorable and optimism was more limited. As shown in the graph below, the sector has steadily been moving in a positive direction since then as market fundamentals have improved, operational and financial performance has strengthened, and the senior housing sector is outperforming most other commercial real estate sectors.  

See highlights from the 2026 NIC Fall Conference, along with takeaways from the conference educational sessions here.

Looking Beyond Today’s Construction Pipeline

With senior housing construction remaining constrained and occupancy approaching historically high levels, attention is increasingly turning to what may come next. Units currently under construction provide visibility into near-term supply, but they do not capture the projects sitting further upstream in the development process.

NIC’s new report, “Beyond Construction: The Senior Housing Planning Pipeline,” looks beyond construction to examine the senior housing planning pipeline: the projects that have not yet broken ground but are in pre-planning, planning, bidding, or final planning.

As of the second quarter 2026, the analysis identifies 88,283 units in the planning pipeline across 214 NIC MAP Markets. The report examines the size and maturity of that pipeline, what types of projects and communities are being planned – including existing property modification and new property development across independent living, assisted living, and continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs) – where potential future supply is concentrated, and where data is available, when planned units are targeted to begin construction. It also provides context by comparing the planning pipeline with units currently under construction and recent years’ absorption-to-inventory velocity (AIV) ratios.

Importantly, the planning pipeline represents potential future supply, not a forecast for future construction or inventory growth. Projects may advance, be delayed, or not ultimately break ground. The analysis instead provides a broader view of what currently sits upstream of construction and establishes a baseline for tracking the development pipeline over time.

Key Takeaways:

  • In the second quarter of 2026, 88,283 units were in the planning pipeline across 214 NIC MAP Markets, with 95.2% associated with new property development.
  • The pipeline remains largely upstream: 94.5% of units were in pre-planning or planning, while just 5.5% reached the bidding or final planning stage.
  • Primary Markets account for 71.0% of planned units, indicating notable concentration in the largest NIC MAP Markets.
  • The pipeline also showed a coastal concentration: The Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Pacific, and Northeast regions collectively accounted for approximately 77% of units in planning.
  • Assisted living communities account for the largest share of the pipeline, representing 60% of planned units
  • The planning pipeline was more than three times (3.2x) the size of the construction pipeline and represents 6.8% of existing inventory.
  • An additional 17,609 units were deferred, representing projects temporarily on hold that may re-enter the planning or development pipeline.
  • The 4-year AIV ratio is 38:10, indicating that absorption has substantially outpaced inventory growth across the 140 NIC MAP Markets.

Developers continue to face higher construction and labor costs, financing challenges, regulatory requirements, and zoning barriers that can challenge project feasibility. Development timelines add another challenge: entitlements, approvals, and construction can take years, while demographic growth continues.

There are two conversions worth watching. On the supply side, it is the conversion of planned projects into construction starts. On the operating side, it is the conversion of strong occupancy and pricing into operating margins. Those two dynamics will tell us a lot about where senior housing goes next, from both an operating and investment perspective

Learn more and download the full report: Beyond Construction: The Senior Housing Planning Pipeline.

It’s Time to Make Middle Market Housing and Care a Reality 

For an older adult with a steady retirement income and some home equity, finding housing and care can still mean confronting a difficult gap: too much income to qualify for assistance, but insufficient resources to sustain traditional senior housing costs. Closing that gap requires models designed around what consumers can afford and what providers can sustainably deliver. 

The 2026 NIC Fall Conference session, “It’s Time to Make Middle Market Housing & Care a Reality,” explored that challenge through three distinct approaches. Building on NIC’s Forgotten Middle research, and subsequent NIC-sponsored work examining the combined burden of housing and care and exploring financing and care models that could expand access, the discussion focused on the economics and partnerships needed to turn individual examples into options available to more older adults. 

Different Consumers Require Different Models 

The middle market spans a broad range of financial circumstances and care needs. Some older adults have current needs that are largely related to housing and social connection while others require services and increasing levels of care. Serving that range calls for different products, with clear expectations about what residents receive and how costs may change. 

Bre Grubbs, with Leisure Care, described a mixed-income community in Livermore, California, where market-rate and income-qualified residents co-exist and share programs and amenities. The model combines bond-financing expertise, local government support, and sufficient density to make lower-priced housing possible within a high-income market. 

Laura Lamb from Episcopal Retirement Services takes a different approach in Ohio, offering independent living without an entrance fee and connecting residents with outside service providers as they age. Its patio-home model relies on manageable land and construction costs and an unlicensed independent living structure.  

At Mainstay Senior Living, Tod Petty emphasized reducing the cost basis through selective development, repositioning existing properties, and controlling construction costs, supported by a vertically integrated model, long-term ownership, and investors seeking ongoing income. 

Three Approaches to Middle Market Housing and Care

Three Approaches to Middle Market Housing and Care

Different models depend on different operating and financing conditions

Mixed-income community Independent living with outside services Lower-cost development and repositioning
Livermore California Episcopal Retirement Services Mainstay Senior Living
How It Expands Access

Combines market-rate and income-qualified housing within one community.

How It Expands Access

Offers housing without entrance fee and connects residents with outside service providers.

How It Expands Access

Reduces the property cost basis to support attainable pricing.

What Makes it Possible

Bond-financing expertise, local government support, and sufficient density within a high-income market.

What Makes it Possible

Manageable land and construction costs and an unlicensed independent living structure.

What Makes it Possible

Construction cost control, long-term ownership, and aligned capital.

Scaling requires financing and partnerships suited to each model.

Source: NIC Fall Conference Session – September 2026

Prepared by: NIC Analytics of the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC)

Affordability Begins Before the Monthly Bill 

Across these approaches, the economics behind the residents’ price deserve as much attention as the price itself. Land costs, construction decisions, service arrangements, and capital expectations determine what a community must charge. Each model depends on a particular combination of those factors; expanding access requires understanding which elements can be adapted to another market. 

Financing remains a notable obstacle to middle market senior housing. A product can meet a clear consumer need yet struggle to secure funding because it falls outside familiar lending categories. For capital providers, the opportunity is to assess these models through their cash flows, operating evidence, and risks, with financing terms that support expansion. Local governments also influence feasibility through land-use decisions, density, and their willingness to work with developers and operators. 

Scaling Middle Market Senior Housing is the Next Challenge and Opportunity 

The panelists emphasized sharing what they have learned so others can build on it. Greater visibility into development costs, financing structures, and operating assumptions would help providers and capital partners distinguish a promising concept from a model they can adapt. Successful replication will require an honest account of each approach’s limits alongside its strengths. 

Affordability must also hold up over time. NIC’s Senior Housing Affordability Calculator reinforces the importance of understanding how long an older adult’s resources can sustain housing and care. A manageable starting rent is only part of the journey when residents’ needs and expenses may increase.  

The progress of middle market solutions needs to be measured by how many older adults gain access to housing and care they can sustain. That will depend on providers, capital partners, and governments carrying these ideas into actual projects. The three models discussed offer places to begin; the work ahead is to make their underlying economics and partnerships possible in more communities.