With senior housing construction remaining constrained and occupancy approaching historically high levels, attention is increasingly turning to what may come next. Units currently under construction provide visibility into near-term supply, but they do not capture the projects sitting further upstream in the development process.

NIC’s new report, “Beyond Construction: The Senior Housing Planning Pipeline,” looks beyond construction to examine the senior housing planning pipeline: the projects that have not yet broken ground but are in pre-planning, planning, bidding, or final planning.

As of the second quarter 2026, the analysis identifies 88,283 units in the planning pipeline across 214 NIC MAP Markets. The report examines the size and maturity of that pipeline, what types of projects and communities are being planned – including existing property modification and new property development across independent living, assisted living, and continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs) – where potential future supply is concentrated, and where data is available, when planned units are targeted to begin construction. It also provides context by comparing the planning pipeline with units currently under construction and recent years’ absorption-to-inventory velocity (AIV) ratios.

Importantly, the planning pipeline represents potential future supply, not a forecast for future construction or inventory growth. Projects may advance, be delayed, or not ultimately break ground. The analysis instead provides a broader view of what currently sits upstream of construction and establishes a baseline for tracking the development pipeline over time.

Key Takeaways:

• In the second quarter of 2026, 88,283 units were in the planning pipeline across 214 NIC MAP Markets, with 95.2% associated with new property development.

• The pipeline remains largely upstream: 94.5% of units were in pre-planning or planning, while just 5.5% reached the bidding or final planning stage.

• Primary Markets account for 71.0% of planned units, indicating notable concentration in the largest NIC MAP Markets.

• The pipeline also showed a coastal concentration: The Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Pacific, and Northeast regions collectively accounted for approximately 77% of units in planning.
• Assisted living communities account for the largest share of the pipeline, representing 60% of planned units

• The planning pipeline was more than three times (3.2x) the size of the construction pipeline and represents 6.8% of existing inventory.

• An additional 17,609 units were deferred, representing projects temporarily on hold that may re-enter the planning or development pipeline.

• The 4-year AIV ratio is 38:10, indicating that absorption has substantially outpaced inventory growth across the 140 NIC MAP Markets.

Developers continue to face higher construction and labor costs, financing challenges, regulatory requirements, and zoning barriers that can challenge project feasibility. Development timelines add another challenge: entitlements, approvals, and construction can take years, while demographic growth continues.

There are two conversions worth watching. On the supply side, it is the conversion of planned projects into construction starts. On the operating side, it is the conversion of strong occupancy and pricing into operating margins. Those two dynamics will tell us a lot about where senior housing goes next, from both an operating and investment perspective

Learn more and download the full report: Beyond Construction: The Senior Housing Planning Pipeline.