Senior housing occupancy surpassed 90% in the third quarter, the first time that primary market occupancy rates have been above 90% since 2014. Occupancy rates reached record highs in four primary markets – San Francisco, Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas. At the same time, inventory growth remained near record lows, measuring below 1.0% for the sixth consecutive quarter. 

These and other findings on quarterly senior housing data trends were presented by NIC’s Research & Analytics team during a recent webinar with NIC MAP clients.  Joe Daniel, Vice President, Direct Supply, joined Lisa McCracken, NIC’s Head of Research, on the webinar to discuss industry trends related to the development pipeline activity. 

Key takeaways included the following:  

Takeaway #1: Senior Housing Occupancy Rate Surpassed 90% 

• The occupancy rate for senior housing rose 0.6 percentage points in the third quarter for the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets to reach 90.4%, driven by positive net absorption outpacing the number of new units arriving online. 

• The third quarter of 2026 marked the first time that occupancy rates have been above 90% since 2014. 

Takeaway #2: Assisted Living Occupancy Rate Gains Outpaced Independent Living 

• Breaking out occupancies by property type, the occupancy rate for independent living communities rose 0.4 percentage points in the third quarter to reach 91.7%, while the occupancy rate for assisted living communities rose twice as fast, increasing by 0.8 percentage points to reach 89.1%. 

• As a result of assisted living gains outpacing those of independent living, the gap between the two occupancy rates narrowed to only 2.6 percentage points in the third quarter, which was the smallest spread between the property type occupancies since 2014. 

Takeaway #3: Four Primary Markets Reached Occupancy Rate Highs 

• There are four markets where occupancy rates today have reached their time series highs – San Francisco (93.3%), Chicago (91.2%), Kansas City (91.1%), and Dallas (88.7%) – and four additional markets that are within just 50 basis points or less of reaching their historical highs. 

• Overall, 17 of the 31 Primary Markets (55%) had occupancy rates at or above 90% in the third quarter. 

Takeaway #4: Inventory Growth Remained Near Record Lows 

• Turning to new supply, year-over-year inventory growth remained below 1.0% for the sixth consecutive quarter and near the time series low. 

• Breaking out supply by property type, independent living inventory increased 0.3% from a year earlier, well below its historical average growth of 1.5% annually. 

• Assisted living inventory increased only 0.4% from a year earlier, well below its historical average growth of more than 3% annually.