NIC | CARES BLOG
A place for connections, analysis, research, and education on seniors housing and care

Seniors Housing Annual Total Returns Continue to Outpace Other Commercial Real Estate

Returns Strong. Third-quarter investment return data for the NCREIF-reported seniors housing properties equaled 2.73%, composed of a 1.38% capital return and a 1.36% income return. The annual total return through the first quarter of 2017 was 12.72%, overshadowing the NCREIF Property Index (NPI) result of 6.89% and the apartment result of 6.22%. However, industrial total returns slightly outpaced seniors housing at 12.80%. Despite the relatively strong showing, the total annual return for seniors housing has been trending down since mid-2014 when it peaked at 20.37%. This pattern can also be seen in the broader index and reflects a slowdown in the appreciation component of the index.

On a 10-year basis, total returns for seniors housing exceeded both the NPI and apartments by more than 400 basis points. The difference with hotel was even larger at 656 basis points (10.40% versus 3.84%), while the difference with retail was the smallest of the other five main property types at 257 basis points (10.40% versus 7.83%). On a one-year basis, the widest differential was between hotel and seniors housing at 810 basis points.

These performance measurements reflect the returns of 102 seniors housing stabilized properties, valued at $4.9 billion in the first quarter. This is the first quarter that the property count of the NCREIF universe of seniors housing exceeded 100 properties.


About the Author

Beth Burnham Mace

Beth Burnham Mace is the Chief Economist and Director of Outreach at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). Prior to joining the staff at NIC, she served as a member of the NIC Board of Directors for seven years and chaired NIC’s Research Committee. Ms. Mace was also a Director at AEW Capital Management and worked in the AEW Research Group for 17 years. Prior to joining AEW in 1997, Ms. Mace spent ten years at Standard & Poor’s DRI/McGraw-Hill as the Director of the Regional Information Service. She also worked as a Regional Economist at Crocker Bank, the National Commission on Air Quality, the Brookings Institution and Boston Edison.

Ms. Mace is a member of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), the Urban Land Institute (ULI), ULI’s Senior Housing Council and New England Women in Real Estate (NEWIRE/CREW). In 2014, she was appointed a fellow at the Homer Hoyt Institute and was awarded the title of a “Woman of Influence” in commercial real estate by Real Estate Forum Magazine and Globe Street. Ms. Mace is a graduate of Mount Holyoke College (B.A.) and the University of California (M.S.). She has also earned The Certified Business Economist™ title (CBE) from the National Association of Business Economists (NABE). Ms. Mace is often cited in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Seniors Housing Business, Seniors Housing News and McKnight’s Senior Living and has a bi-monthly column in the National Real Estate Investor.