Research: Assisted Living Market Penetration Depends on More Than Local Demographics or Economics
New NIC study finds assisted living occupied penetration rates are not determined by any single factor but by alignment of forces across a market
ANNAPOLIS, Md. (February 17, 2026) – The share of older adults who reside in assisted living varies widely across U.S. metropolitan markets, and the reasons extend beyond demographics or economics alone, according to new research from the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). The study examines why some markets have significantly higher occupied penetration rates of assisted living than others, even when older adults’ functional care needs in the market are similar.
NIC defined assisted living occupied penetration rate—also known as capture rate—as the share of households aged 75 and older residing in assisted living properties within a given market.
Using data from 99 geographic markets, NIC researchers identified substantial variation in assisted living penetration rates nationwide. To better understand those differences, the team conducted deeper analysis in four contrasting markets: Minneapolis, Minn. (10.1% penetration rate) and Portland, Ore. (7.5%), compared with Miami, Fla. (2.4%) and Las Vegas, Nev. (1.9%).
The findings show that assisted living penetration within a geographic market cannot be explained by demographics or economics alone. Instead, higher adoption occurs when multiple conditions align, including but not limited to economic foundations, consumer awareness, workforce capacity, and supportive public policy.
“Our goal was to move beyond assumptions and understand what really influences assisted living penetration rates at the market level,” said Omar Zahraoui, NIC’s senior principal. “We found that penetration is influenced not just by personal finances or functional care needs, but by how well a market supports awareness, confidence, planning, and workforce stability early enough for families to choose assisted living proactively.”
NIC identified six key factors that support greater market penetration rates:
- Market potential does not equal high penetration rates: Markets with higher incomes, wealth, and marriage rates—and lower poverty—tend to have higher assisted living use, but that pattern doesn’t hold everywhere.
- Higher care needs do not automatically translate to higher assisted living penetration: Markets with lower reported limitations in activities of daily living often have higher assisted living penetration, suggesting that many residents move in proactively—not only after care needs intensify.
- Culture, awareness, and perception matter: Cultural attitudes, familiarity with assisted living, and perceptions of the product strongly influence adoption, sometimes outweighing financial or demographic capacity.
- Affordability is both a misperception and a reality: In many markets, there are options within reach of median-income older adults, but lack of awareness and delayed planning keep people from moving in.
- Workforce availability is a key driver: Markets with a strong caregiver pipeline are more likely to expand and serve more residents, while those that cannot do so may fall behind—even when demand from older adults is high.
- Local policy shapes access, affordability, and development: State and local policies can either enable or limit access, affordability, and modernization of assisted living.
Researchers say that ultimately, the assisted living penetration rate reflects both market capacity and consumer confidence in the product.
“A market’s penetration rate measures how effectively the entire senior housing ecosystem reaches and supports older adults,” said Lisa McCracken, NIC’s head of research and analytics. “Understanding how these forces interact can help operators, investors, and policymakers expand access and choice, especially as the population ages.”
NIC’s research underscores that improving assisted living penetration requires coordinated effort from operators, investors, policymakers, educators, and advocates to expand awareness, strengthen affordability pathways, stabilize workforce pipelines, and normalize assisted living as a proactive option rather than a forced decision. Every effort to increase understanding and confidence in financial planning contributes to higher market penetration, more informed consumer choice, and ultimately, a system better equipped to serve today’s older adults and meet the expectations of generations to come.
About the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care
The National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), a 501(c)(3) organization, works to enable access and choice by providing data, analytics and connections that bring together investors and providers. The organization delivers the most trusted, objective, and timely insights and implications derived from its analytics, which benefit from NIC’s affiliation with NIC MAP, the leading provider of comprehensive market data for senior housing and skilled nursing communities. NIC events, which include the industry’s premier conferences, provide sector stakeholders with opportunities to convene, network and drive thought leadership through high quality educational programming. For more information, visit NIC’s website and follow NIC on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Instagram.