NIC Analytics released the NIC Lending Trends Report  for the second half (2H) of 2025. This complimentary report includes data trends over nine years for senior housing and nursing care construction loans, mini-perm/bridge loans, permanent loans, and delinquencies from third quarter 2016 through fourth quarter 2025. The report is based on survey contributions from 18 participating lenders. 

In 2H 2025, the Federal Reserve resumed easing, cutting the federal funds rate three times–in September, October, and December–bringing the target range down from 4.25%-4.50% to 3.50%-3.75% by year-end. The Fed described the cuts as a response to a shifting balance of risks, while continuing to emphasize that future policy decisions would depend on incoming data, the economic outlook, and inflation progress.   

Looking into 2026, the Federal Reserve has not implemented any rate cuts as of June 2026. In fact, expectations for additional rate cuts in 2026 have faded gradually in recent months due to persistent inflation pressures, rising energy prices, and geopolitical uncertainty. Several market forecasts and economist surveys now expect the Fed to remain on hold through most, if not all, of 2026. As a result, lenders are likely to remain active yet disciplined, with continued focus on sponsor strength, and overall debt capacity. 

Survey Comments from the Field: Lenders remained disciplined but increasingly competitive in 2H 2025, with stronger desire for both new and existing borrowers. 

NIC’s lending survey gathers both data for inclusion in the Lending Trends Report and commentary on what is driving those trends. A summary of that commentary is provided below. 

Credit standards in 2H 2025 remained largely consistent with the first half of the year, with most lenders reporting no major changes in underwriting requirements across senior housing and nursing care. However, several respondents noted that the lending environment continued to become incrementally more competitive and borrower-friendly, particularly for high-quality operators and well-performing assets.  

Relationship-driven lending remained the dominant theme, while onboarding activity stayed strong. Most lenders continued extending loans to existing borrowers while also actively pursuing new clients, particularly experienced and well-capitalized operators. Several respondents also noted a rise in acquisition financing opportunities and first-time borrowers entering the market. 

Competitive pressure among lenders appeared to increase in 2H 2025. Multiple respondents highlighted tighter spreads, more aggressive bank pricing, and increased flexibility in deal structures. At the same time, debt-service coverage constraints continued to weigh on underwriting, particularly in the context of still-elevated interest rates. Even so, lenders reported an increasing pace of loan applications and approvals, reinforcing the view that capital availability continued to improve heading into 2026. 

Permanent lending jumped in 2H 2025, reaching multi-year highs in senior housing and record levels in nursing care. 

Permanent lending activity accelerated in 2H 2025 across both senior housing and nursing care. Senior housing permanent loan volume reached approximately $4.2 billion in the second half of the year, including $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter alone, bringing activity to its highest level since mid-2019. The increase was supported by stronger acquisition financing demand, improved property fundamentals, and a more competitive lending environment as banks and other capital providers became increasingly active in the space. 

Nursing care permanent loan volume also continued its upward trajectory, totaling approximately $4.0 billion in 2H 2025 and reaching the highest level in the time series.  

Overall, 2H 2025 marked one of the strongest permanent lending environments seen in several years. Relatively lower policy rates, tighter spreads, and increased lender appetite helped support robust deal flow, although underwriting discipline and debt-service coverage requirements remained key considerations across both sectors. 

Bridge lending reached record levels in 2H 2025, driven by strong activity in senior housing and a sharp rebound in nursing care. 

Mini-perm and bridge lending activity accelerated further in 2H of 2025, reaching some of the strongest levels observed in the time series. In senior housing, bridge loan volume totaled approximately $2.4 billion across the third and fourth quarters, marking the highest two-quarter total on record since at least 2016. Activity remained elevated throughout the period, reflecting growing lender confidence in short-term financing opportunities and continued demand for acquisition, repositioning, and lease-up capital. 

Nursing care bridge lending remained more volatile but still reached new highs by year-end. After declining sharply in the third quarter, volumes rebounded significantly in the fourth quarter to more than $1.1 billion, establishing a new quarterly record in the time series for the sector. 

Overall, bridge lending in 2H 2025 reflected a more active and competitive financing environment across both sectors. Banks and alternative lenders continued expanding their presence in the market, although underwriting discipline remained intact, with capital still concentrated among experienced sponsors and higher-quality assets. 

Construction lending remained historically subdued in 2H 2025, reinforcing growing concerns around future supply constraints. 

Construction lending activity remained subdued in 2H 2025, despite a modest uptick in senior housing volumes during the third quarter. Senior housing construction loan volume rose to approximately $277 million in the third quarter, the strongest level since 2022, before declining again to roughly $143 million in the fourth quarter. Even with this temporary and small improvement, activity remained well below historical standards, highlighting the continued caution among lenders and developers toward new ground-up projects. 

Nursing care construction lending remained extremely limited throughout the second half of the year. After recording only modest activity in 3Q, volumes returned to virtually nonexistent levels in 4Q, continuing the long-standing trend of minimal new development in the sector. 

More broadly, the structural supply story remained largely unchanged in 2H 2025. The number of senior housing units under construction continued to hover near historic lows, while extended development timelines and elevated project costs continued to constrain new starts. The industry continues to face an increasing risk of insufficient future supply, while in some markets, inventory is no longer simply growing more slowly, it is beginning to contract. 

Delinquency rates remained relatively stable in 2H 2025, with senior housing improving further while nursing care held near recent highs. 

Delinquency trends remained relatively stable in 2H 2025, particularly in senior housing, where overall credit performance continued to improve despite some quarter-to-quarter volatility in delinquent loan balances. Senior housing delinquencies represented 2.0% of total loans in the third quarter before declining further to 1.5% in the fourth quarter, continuing the sector’s broader recovery from the 2023 peak of 4.3%. (Note: loans in forbearance are included in the delinquent loan data for some debt providers, slightly influencing these figures.) 

In nursing care, delinquency rates remained more elevated relative to senior housing, holding at 2.1% in both 3Q and 4Q. Persistent operating pressures, reimbursement challenges, and labor costs continued to weigh more heavily on skilled nursing operators, although overall credit conditions remained considerably more stable than in prior years. 

Foreclosure activity for the sample in 2H 2025 totaled approximately $74.7 million for senior housing and $13.2 million for nursing care, highlighting that while credit performance has improved, pockets of financial stress and asset-level distress remain. 

Download the complimentary 2H 2025  NIC Lending Trends Report for full details on these and other trends in senior housing and skilled nursing lending.  

Note: This data is not to be interpreted as a census of all senior housing and skilled nursing lending activity in the U.S. but rather reflect lending activity from participants included in the survey sample only.  

The NIC Lending Trends Report for the first half of 2026 is scheduled for release in December 2026. 

Interested in participating? The NIC Lending Trends Report helps NIC Analytics deliver on NIC’s mission to enable access and choice by further enhancing transparency of capital market trends in the senior housing and care sectors. We very much appreciate our data contributors. This report would not be possible without them.  

If you would like to participate and contribute your data to future lending trends surveys, please contact us at analytics@nic.org. As a courtesy for providing data, data contributors receive this report before publication on the website. The information provided as part of the survey will be kept strictly confidential. Individual answers will be combined with all other responses. Data acquired from this survey will only be reported in the aggregate, and therefore, the resulting aggregated data will not be attributed to you or your company upon distribution.  

Growth is no longer a future ambition for senior housing operators. It is a present-day imperative. But in a market shaped by rising demand, constrained supply, evolving consumer expectations, and more selective capital, growth for growth’s sake is not enough. The operators best positioned for what comes next are those scaling with intention: strengthening their teams, protecting their culture, sharpening their story, investing in systems, and building the right partnerships before opportunity outpaces readiness. 

That is where the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) plays a critical role. On May 13–14, NIC hosted its annual Growth Conference, bringing more than 300 senior housing and care leaders to Indianapolis for two days focused on scaling with discipline and intention. Purpose-built for small to mid-size operators, capital providers, and strategic partners, the conference offered practical strategies, firsthand lessons from experienced leaders, and high-value connections to help organizations prepare for their next stage of growth. 

The conference brought together operators looking for practical growth strategies, capital providers seeking strong operating partners, vendors and strategic partners supporting the sector’s evolution, and experienced leaders willing to share what has worked, what has not, and what they would do differently. 

As Sevy Petras, Co-Founder and CEO of Priority Life Care, and Growth Conference Program Committee Co-Chair noted in opening remarks, “What operators need right now isn’t more theory, it’s what’s actually working.” 

That idea carried through every session. 

Growth Requires Discipline, Not Just Opportunity 

The takeaway: good growth starts with a clear plan, a strong sense of identity, and the discipline to protect the business you already have. 

Culture Can Be a Growth Strategy 

Several sessions emphasized the importance of culture as a defining factor in whether an organization can scale successfully. 

In Will Your Identity Shape Your Growth or Become a Casualty of It?, operators discussed how culture needs to be defined, nurtured, and adapted as an organization grows. Culture cannot live only with a founder or a small group of long-tenured leaders. As companies add communities, enter new markets, or integrate acquisitions, culture must be translated into hiring practices, leadership development, communication standards, values, and everyday behaviors. 

“There is a direct correlation between culture and performance,” emphasized Brenda Connelly, President of The Springs Living. Fellow speaker Tom Grape, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Benchmark Senior Living, shared a similar perspective, noting that the goal should be to “grow to get better, not bigger.” 

That distinction captured one of the conference’s strongest messages: growth should strengthen the organization, not dilute what made it successful in the first place. 

Capital Partners Are Looking for Clarity, Performance, and Trust 

Operators seeking the secrets to what capital looks for in a strong partner learned that while a growth strategy matters, it must be backed by numbers, systems, leadership, and a realistic plan. 

In Capital Across the Life Cycle: Practical Financing Strategies for Growing Operators, 

speakers detailed how strong operators need to demonstrate a command of their numbers, the ability to explain performance at the community level, and the bench strength to scale without overextending the organization. “If the leadership isn’t set up well, it may not scale well or rebound off poor performance,” noted Garret Sacco, Managing Director at Berkadia.  

Panelists also emphasized that capital partners want operators to succeed. They are not only evaluating financial performance, but also leadership, culture, communication, transparency, and whether the operator can make the transition from entrepreneurial to more institutional without losing what makes the company strong. 

“Your capital wants you to win,” explained Dave Boitano, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer for LTC Properties. “We are all on the same team and we want to be a resource.” He added that it’s an industry that rewards creativity and a vision that both sides can get behind. “Don’t grow a business that you grow to hate. Grow the business that you want to have.” 

Technology and Data Are Now Growth Requirements 

As today’s residents and families grow more comfortable using technology in daily life,  integrating tech into your systems and business is a necessity. In Technology & Data: From Nice-to-Have to Growth Prerequisite, speakers discussed how technology decisions can either support or slow growth. Operators were encouraged to choose systems that fit where they are today while also preparing for where they are going. 

The session highlighted the importance of clear ownership when implementing new technology, thoughtful pilot programs that include a realistic mix of communities, and practical data strategies that put the right information in front of the right people at the right time. Speakers also discussed the growing role of AI, not as a replacement for leadership or judgment, but as a tool that can help operators think differently, improve efficiency, and identify new solutions. 

The broader takeaway was simple: as operators grow, technology and data can no longer be treated as side projects. They are core infrastructure. 

Transitions, Partnerships, and Risk Management Matter More as You Scale 

Growth often brings complexity, and several sessions explored the operational realities that come with expansion. 

In Management Transitions & Integration, panelists focused on the people side of transitions. Residents, families, and team members need communication, consistency, and reassurance. “Families and residents want to know there will be consistency,” explained Doug Schiffer, President & CEO of Allegro Living. “They want to know they’ll have the same caregivers they are used to. It’s key that the transition does not create waves for the residents and families.” He noted that the local team must become an advocate for the transition, and leaders need to be transparent about what will change and what will remain steady. 

In Advancing Growth Through Strategic Partnership Models, speakers explored how partnerships between for-profit and not-for-profit organizations can help organizations grow when traditional development is slow, capital is constrained, or expertise is needed. The strongest partnerships require alignment, clarity, and a shared understanding of each party’s strengths. 

In Avoiding Hidden Risks in Resident and Staff Contracts, speakers reminded attendees that growth across markets also brings new legal, regulatory, employment, and contract considerations. Due diligence, vendor relationships, and outside expertise become increasingly important as organizations expand into new states or take on new operating structures. 

Strong Brands Start with Authentic Differentiation 

The session Utilizing Your Own Secret Weapon challenged operators to better understand and communicate what truly makes their communities different. 

Speakers encouraged attendees to look beyond generic language like “vibrant,” “welcoming,” or “caring,” and instead identify the real stories, experiences, people, and operational strengths that set a community apart. The discussion connected marketing directly to operations: what a community says about itself must match what prospects, residents, families, and team members actually experience. 

For smaller and mid-size operators, this can be a meaningful advantage. Their size, local presence, leadership access, team longevity, or unique culture may be exactly what makes them stand out. 

Learning from Mistakes May Be the Most Valuable Growth Tool 

The closing session, Growing Pains: The Mistakes We Made and the Lessons We Learned, brought the conference full circle. Speakers shared lessons from real growth journeys, including the importance of choosing the right partners, hiring people who understand and protect the culture, staying close to the consumer, and ensuring that mission and margin reinforce each other. “Choose partners that will be standing next to you when times are good and when times are bad,” reinforced Sue Farrow, Founder (Retired) of Integral Senior Living/Solstice Senior Living. 

The discussion reinforced why the Growth Conference exists: to give operators and partners a space to learn from leaders who have been through the challenges of growth and are willing to share the lessons that can help others move forward more thoughtfully. 

Looking Ahead 

The 2026 NIC Growth Conference made one thing clear: the senior housing sector is entering a period where growth is both necessary and complex. Demand is rising, capital is engaged, and operators are looking for the right path forward. But successful growth will require more than ambition. It will require discipline, culture, data, capital alignment, operational readiness, and trusted relationships. 

For leaders ready to continue these conversations, NIC will bring the industry together again this October in Chicago for the 2026 NIC Fall Conference. Join senior housing and care leaders, capital providers, operators, developers, and strategic partners for the connections, insights, and conversations shaping what comes next. 

Senior housing investment performance in the first quarter of 2026 continued to gain speed, posting a total return of 3.9%, the property type’s highest total return since the fourth quarter of 2017. Overall, senior housing during the quarter outperformed the broader NCREIF Property Index’s (NPI) total return of 1.2% by 267 basis points, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of index outperformance.

Breaking out return contribution, senior housing capital appreciation in the first quarter was 2.5%. The capital appreciation return is the change in value net of any capital expenditures incurred during the quarter. Senior housing income return in the first quarter was also positive, yielding 1.4%. Both appreciation and income posted their highest quarterly gains since 2017.

Over the one-year period, senior housing strongly outperformed all NCREIF Property Type Subindexes, posting the only double-digit total return at 12.8%, which was 2.5 times the NPI’s total return of 4.9% and well ahead of the second highest return of 7.8% for self-storage properties. Over the longer run, senior housing has outperformed the NPI over the three-, five-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year periods.

These performance measures reflect the returns of 219 senior housing properties valued at $14.0 billion in the first quarter. Overall, the number of senior housing properties tracked within the NPI has grown significantly from the 56 properties initially tracked in 2003, a reflection of increased institutional investment in the property type.

In the first quarter and over the one-year period, assisted living and independent living posted comparable returns, a reversal of recent trends in which independent living outperformed assisted living over the three- and five-year periods.

The broader market fundamentals remain favorable, with occupancy rates climbing as demand for senior housing continues to accelerate and development remains stalled. Senior housing occupancy for the 31 Primary Markets tracked by NIC MAP gained 0.4 percentage points to 89.5% in the first quarter of 2026. This was the 19th consecutive quarter of increasing occupancy rates. At the current pace of development and demand, senior housing occupancy is on track to surpass 90% occupancy well before the end of the year, further tightening availability across many markets.

Senior housing occupancy increased 0.4 percentage points in the first quarter, with the number of occupied senior housing units once again reaching record levels. Year-over-year inventory growth continued to decline, hitting new record lows while average annual asking rent growth accelerated for both independent living and assisted living. These and other findings on first quarter 2026 senior housing data trends were presented by NIC’s Research & Analytics team during a recent webinar with NIC MAP clients. Additionally, Arick Morton, CEO at NIC MAP, presented details on the expanded number of markets in NIC MAP’s coverage, increasing from 140 markets historically to 214 beginning in 2026.

Key takeaways from first quarter 2026 data included the following: 

Takeaway #1: Senior Housing Occupancy Rate Approaching 90%

• The senior housing occupancy rate increased 0.4 percentage points in the first quarter for the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets to reach 89.5%, driven by positive net absorption outpacing a low number of new units arriving online.
• At the current pace, occupancy rates remain on track to surpass 90% before the end of 2026.
• The NIC MAP Secondary Markets have already surpassed the 90% threshold after increasing 0.3 percentage points to reach 90.2% in the first quarter.

Takeaway #2: Independent Living Exceeds 91% Occupancy

• Breaking out occupancies by property type, both independent living and assisted living occupancy rates for the 31 Primary Markets rose 0.4 percentage points in the first quarter.
• Independent living surpassed 91% occupancy for the first time since 2016 in both the Primary and Secondary Markets.
• Overall, solid gains for both property types illustrate the choice-driven demand from the younger or healthier older adults moving into independent living, as well as the need-driven demand from those seeking assisted living services and care.

Takeaway #3: Ten Markets Above 90% Occupied

• Ten of the primary markets had occupancy rates above 90% in the first quarter, up from seven markets in the fourth quarter of 2025 and five markets in the third quarter of 2025.
• There are several markets where occupancy rates today are near or even slightly above their all-time highs, such as San Francisco (91.6%), Los Angeles (90.3%), Dallas (88.3%), and Chicago (89.9%).

Takeaway #4: Inventory Growth Hit New Record Low

• Turning to inventory growth, a continued decline in new supply arriving online in the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets has helped drive occupancy rates higher.
• By property type, year-over-year inventory growth hit a new record low, increasing by only 0.4% and 0.3% for assisted living and independent living, respectively.

Takeaway #5: Senior Housing Construction Pipeline Continued to Shrink

• Drilling down into construction activity, despite increasing occupancy rates, the development response remains notably slow.
• Total units under construction fell to roughly 16,400 in the first quarter, levels last seen in 2012.
• On a percentage basis, construction underway totals only 2.3% of existing senior housing inventory, among the lowest levels in the time series.
• This shrinking construction pipeline indicates that the pace of new supply is unlikely to accelerate in the near term.

In April NIC MAP released first quarter data for the 875 active adult rental communities they track across the U.S. These communities cater to mostly healthy adults age 55+ who want to live in a community designed for active lifestyles and interaction with peers and who do not yet need or want on-site healthcare services.

Key takeaways from the first quarter data included the following: 

Takeaway #1: Active Adult Occupancy Rates Softened in 1Q

• In 2025, roughly 6,800 new units opened, a decline from the 8,500 new units delivered in 2024. In the first quarter of this year, less than 500 new units came onto the market.
• Although new supply was lower in 2025 than in 2024, this new inventory, along with increased economic uncertainty and a stalled single-family housing market, may have had a moderate impact on active adult occupancy rates.
• The active adult occupancy rate stood at 91.2% in the first quarter, falling 0.7 percentage points from the prior quarter.
• For stabilized properties open at least two years, occupancy rates also declined 0.7 percentage points to 94.0%.

Takeaway #2: Eight of 15 Largest Inventory Markets Exceed National Occupancy Rate

• Below are the largest 15 Primary & Secondary Markets by Active Adult Inventory and ranked by stabilized occupancy.
• The U.S. average occupancy rate of 91.2% is shown in the dotted line.
• Eight of the 15 largest markets have occupancy rates above 91.2%, with Minneapolis at the national average.
• Anecdotally, the bottom markets in this chart – Austin and Phoenix – in the past few years have had a lot of new units arrive online – both active adult and conventional multifamily – and, as a result, may be seeing signs of slower lease up and lower rent growth.

Takeaway #3: Median Average Monthly Rent Below $2,000

• For the 15 largest active adult markets, the bar chart below shows median rents in each metro area, while the dotted line shows the national median at $1,945 per month.
• Most of these 15 markets are at or below this $2,000 threshold, although New York and Chicago approach $3,000.