Penetration rates vary across markets and across time.  Some of the variation may be due to differing demand factors such as population and household growth and size, consumer preferences, familiarity and comfort with the product, changes in the composition of inventory, and cultural influences. This blog post explores some of this variation.

The chart above shows the ordinal ranking of occupancy rates and penetration rates for the Primary 31 markets for Majority Independent Living (IL) properties as of 2Q2018 from the NIC MAP® client portal. Although one might expect areas with high occupancy to also have high penetration, the data show that is not always the case and that there is variation in the relationship between occupancy rates and penetration rates.

Penetration rates over time: Some have risen, some have fallen.  An analysis of metropolitan market penetration rates across time that uses NIC MAP seniors housing inventory and occupancy data and time series household demographic data from the U.S. Census and Moody’s Analytics reveals interesting results¹ This analysis calculates two types of penetration time series: occupied penetration (calculated as the number of occupied units divided by households age 75+) and supply penetration (open inventory divided by households age 75+). After calculating the supply penetration rate and occupied penetration rate time series for the Primary 31 Markets, we also calculated the respective changes from 4Q2006 to 4Q2016 for each metropolitan market.

The data show wide differences in penetration rates by geography, with high penetration rates for Majority IL, Portland, Oregon; Philadelphia; Kansas City; and Seattle ranked high, while Los Angeles; Riverside; New York; and Las Vegas ranked low.

The analysis also examined changes in occupied penetration rates across time by metropolitan market. For Majority IL, 17 out of the 31 Primary Markets saw decreases in occupied penetration rates in the 10 years ending in 2016, while the other 14 showed increases. For the aggregate Primary 31 Markets, occupied penetration remained flat at 5.6% for Majority IL.

Why have some markets experienced rising penetration rates, while others have not?  The answer reflects underlying supply and demand factors, such as a comparison of growth in inventory compared with growth in households over age 75, demand-related factors such as familiarity with the product, demographic patterns of both seniors and their adult children, and in some cases idiosyncratic factors unique to each metropolitan area such as cultural comfort with the product offerings.  Operator reputation in a market may also help explain penetration rates.  This variability reinforces how important it is to evaluate conditions at a local market level.

Conclusion.  Penetration rates and occupancy rates do not have a clear-cut relationship across markets.  Penetration rates can increase when inventory growth outpaces household growth. In some instances, this may result in falling occupancy rates; but in others, occupancy rates remain steady.  Factors such as familiarity with the product type, marketing and education efforts, operator reputation, growth in the number of seniors and their adult children, variation in population health needs, local cost of living, affordability of product, and perhaps climate, can also influence penetration rates. 

¹ The Moody’s Analytics time series data for Households over age 75 based on the U.S. Census at this time is currently only available through 2016.

Drawing over 1,500 owners, operators, capital providers, and other seniors housing & care stakeholders, the upcoming NIC Spring Conference has established itself as a must-attend event for decision makers across the sector. To miss it is to pass up a rare opportunity to build relationships, make new connections, and gain the latest data and thought leadership, in 3 value-packed days of meetings, presentations, breakout sessions and networking opportunities.

This year, the event, titled Investing in Seniors Housing & Healthcare Collaboration, reflects the reality that the sector faces a period of change and adaptation. That fact, for some in the industry, makes this year’s event all the more impactful, as it is designed to help decision makers explore new opportunities, develop new relationships, and break down old silos as they adapt to a value-based world.

With the close involvement of trail blazers from within the industry, and our own subject matter experts, NIC has designed a program to provide real value for every attendee. Stakeholders from across the sector, from owners to developers to capital providers and investors will find the latest, most relevant data, innovations that address the most pressing challenges, thought leadership from some of the most respected voices in the industry, and new opportunities to succeed in an era sure to demand change.

Perhaps the most unique aspect of the Spring Conference is that a growing number of senior decision makers from the healthcare sector will be there. While the majority of attendees will be real-estate based investors, capital providers, owners, operators, providers and other stakeholders from within the sector, NIC is encouraging health systems, physician-led organizations, managed care plans and payors, home health, home care and hospice companies to attend, together with their investors. These potential healthcare partners, who have an active interest in understanding the opportunities in senior care collaboration – but may never have done so before – will discover new relationships as they seek to address the needs of their patients beyond the healthcare facility.

As healthcare providers come under increasing pressure to improve patient outcomes while reducing costs, the seniors housing & care sector, which is home to millions of high-need, high-cost seniors every day, offers a compelling array of partnership opportunities, some of which are already being pursued by industry leaders in both sectors. This is the only industry event that offers the opportunity to explore collaborative relationships between seniors housing & care organizations and potential health care partners.

The NIC Spring Conference is an event designed to provide real business value to every attendee, while delivering a coherent and timely central thesis that will benefit the industry as a whole, ultimately serving NIC’s mission, which is to improve access and choice for America’s seniors. To learn more about the 2019 NIC Spring Conference, including networking opportunities and programming, sponsorship options, and special offers, such as the currently available early bird rates, click the link below – and see you in San Diego!

The 2019 NIC Spring Conference luncheon keynote talk will be delivered by bestselling author, consultant and futurist Ian Morrison. Morrison is an internationally known specialist in long-term forecasting and planning, with an emphasis on the changing business environment in healthcare. Known for his many books and articles on the changing healthcare system – and notorious for his Scottish wit – Morrison is ideally qualified to bring into focus the coming challenges and opportunities facing the seniors housing and care sector. 

With a luncheon audience expected to exceed 1,200 leaders in the space, including a small but growing number of executives from the healthcare sector, Morrison will have the ear of many of America’s seniors housing and care decision makers.  

While most conference attendees are executives in real-estate based businesses, healthcare partnerships are expected to be an essential component to success in coming years. Healthcare stakeholders, who have an active interest in understanding the opportunities in senior care collaboration – but may never have done so before – are investigating potential partnerships as they seek to address the needs of their patients in a value-based world. 

As the healthcare system adjusts to a value-based model, and as fundamental shifts in demographics, consumer demands, payment systems and business models form a new paradigm of healthcare delivery and payment, the seniors housing & care sector will need to adapt. Collaboration with new healthcare partners will not be an option, but a requirement, in a system increasingly focused on achieving better outcomes at lower costs.  

Be prepared for an engaging and convincing account of what lies just ahead for the sector, and even for a touch of wry humor, as Morrison applies his unique experience and perspective to the task of inspiring us to think differently about the role of our sector within a larger system in flux. 

As NIC MAP^® Data Service clients know, NIC regularly adds new features to the client platform, often as a direct response to client requests, or as new data and analytical tools become available. NIC works hard to ensure developers, operators, investors, and other stakeholders, have access to the high-quality data they need from the best available time series market data to the latest market preference indicators.

In the latest upgrade, NIC added Walk Score to NIC MAP, providing a measure of “walkability” for individual properties in the national database. The scores, which range from zero to 100—with higher scores indicating greater walkability—can help users easily compare walkability at different seniors housing properties. The new data can easily be incorporated into analyses, as NIC clients assess the impact of this emerging trend on marketability and financial performance.

Recent research and consumer trends are indicating that the seniors housing of the future will not necessarily be located primarily in suburban and rural areas.  Several studies underscore the emerging consumer desire for walkable living, including a 2017 Welltower survey, which found that 7 out of 10 urbanites still want to live in their city after the age of 80. For Baby Boomers, the share was higher, at 8 out of 10.  And, according to a recent survey conducted by A Place for Mom, between 80 and 90 percent of consumers in independent living properties and senior apartments, and 66 percent of residents in assisted living, prefer walkable neighborhoods.

The integration of Walk Score into NIC MAP provides walkability measures at the property-level to facilitate development and investment decisions that reflect the lifestyle and location preferences of many seniors and their family members.  With a segment of the present and future seniors housing residents preferring walkable neighborhoods, integrating Walk Scores into NIC MAP can help inform development locations and ensure seniors have choice in locations, including those that are highly walkable.

NIC MAP clients can log in and view a video tutorial for more information. To learn more about NIC MAP, and get the latest on what the platform has to offer, prospective clients are encouraged to reach out to Sales at sales@nic.org.

It’s the open secret that leading operators have long known—an engaged workforce leads to success in other parts of operations, including key financial and performance metrics.

In the words of one senior living executive, “Happier employees means happier residents. That’s what we’re all about.”

But can we quantify it? What is the business case for employee engagement that will spur us to action? Now, a study coauthored by Argentum and Great Place to Work Institute’s senior care team reveals some answers.

This study is the first of a two-part white paper series and provides the evidence. The study is based on interviews with hundreds of executives along with more than 10 million data elements gathered from senior living employees themselves.

Highlights from the research include:

• A typical senior living operator with 1,500 employees and 20 communities could potentially save $4.4 million a year by reducing turnover by 10%.
• The Trust Index measuring employee engagement is tied to lower turnover and better resident care.
• More than 65% of senior living communities plan to grow the number of seniors served by at least 5% in the next five years, making it more important than ever to provide caring, professional staff.
• Senior living needs more direct care workers, licensed nurses and support positions such as chefs, drivers, and maintenance managers.

Executives in our industry care about this topic, and we share the findings openly along with best practices. The hope is that our sector will continue to improve by offering a competitive place for individuals across the U.S. to grow their careers.

The white paper can be found here.