2025 represented a year of accelerating transaction activity in the senior housing market as participants looked to capitalize on the unprecedented supply/demand fundamentals within the industry. Momentum gathered throughout the year, with activity notably picking up in the second half of the year. The activity represented both smaller, as well as large transactions. 

The robust M&A market has been driven by a demographic megatrend that is set to further accelerate with the leading edge of the Baby Boomer generation turning 80 this year. The 80+ age group – the key cohort for senior housing – is projected to grow by 28 percent over the next five years. At the same time, new development remains at historically low levels, and even the most attractive development projects are still a ways away from penciling. In this environment, participants are looking to acquire now and reap the benefits of the attractive fundamentals. 

In addition, senior housing is a large, highly fragmented market. Private investors, owner-operators and non-profits continue to own about 86% of this approximately $450 billion to $600 billion market, with long-term, REIT ownership still only in the mid-teens. This provides ample room for continued transaction growth. 

Throughout the year, REITs with experience in senior housing represented the largest and most active buyer group. Senior housing is a unique asset class that requires deep expertise for success. REITs with a track record for completing transactions, scalable operational platforms and strong industry relationships, including effective collaboration with outstanding senior housing operators, have competitive advantages in generating deal flow and long-term success.  

The largest REITs have led the way. Ventas (VTR) alone closed $4.8 billion of senior housing investments from 4Q24 through February 2, 2026. Healthpeak (DOC) also announced the formation and planned initial public offering of Janus Living, a new REIT dedicated to senior housing. 

Smaller-to-mid-sized REITs have also increased activity. American Healthcare REIT (AHR) closed $575 million in 2025 through November, National Health Investors (NHI) closed $392 million in 2025 as of December, Sabra (SBRA) closed more than $280 million through 3Q25 and CareTrust REIT (CTRE) entered into the SHOP business with its first acquisition for $40 million. 

In November, there was also a notable industry merger with Sonida Senior Living (SNDA) announcing a merger with CNL Healthcare Properties. The $1.8 billion deal, set to close in the first half of 2026, sets up the newly combined company to further compete in the acquisition market. 

Just as notably, private buyers – including numerous newer private equity funds led by industry veterans and groups that are new entrants into senior housing altogether – have started competing for deals. Transactions in the $30 million to $100 million range, which are more accessible for a wider range of buyers compared to larger transactions, are where competition is the heaviest.  

Heading into 2026, expect competition for deals to continue heating up as investors try to position themselves ahead of the most attractive parts of the supply/demand curve. Those with a successful transaction track record and proven platform remain positioned to win in an increasingly competitive environment. And despite the increase in overall competition, there remain significant opportunities to acquire assets at a discount to replacement cost and that deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns across a range of investment profiles. 

Overall, the senior housing industry has unprecedented momentum, and the transaction market is no different. The investment market will play an integral role in determining who are the biggest and best participants as the industry’s demand continues to accelerate. 

NIC partnered with Gibbins Advisors to prepare the first ever industry-specific bankruptcy report to examine not only recent filings, but also data going back prior to the pandemic for a historical perspective of trends. While bankruptcy data is a trailing measure of distress, it is an important measure for industry participants to track when monitoring the overall health of the senior housing and care sector.  

There are several key findings, which are profiled in detail in the full report. A summary of those key takeaways is below.  

• Senior Care tends to comprise approximately one quarter of all Healthcare sector Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. Senior Care and Pharmaceuticals are the two highest subsectors within healthcare for bankruptcy filings, with the two representing nearly half of all filings between 2019-2025.  

• In 2019 and from 2021 to 2025, Senior Care Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings ranged from 10 to 15 per year. In 2025, the sector recorded 12 bankruptcy filings, representing a modest increase from 10 filings in 2024 and broadly consistent with the average observed over the prior four-year period. 

• The number of Senior Care bankruptcy filings since 2019 is relatively evenly distributed between CCRCs, SNFs, and Senior Living segments. 

• Almost 98% of Senior Care Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings in the past seven years have been companies with less than $500M in liabilities. Just two cases in the period from 2019 to 2025 had liabilities in excess of $500M.  

We encourage readers to view the full report.

In or around August 2026, Gibbins Advisors will produce another industry-specific report, reflecting updated information for the first half of 2026.  

The following analysis examines broader occupancy trends, year-over-year changes in inventory, and same-store asking rent growth – by care segment – within 1,043 Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs) and 13,737 non-CCRCs in the 99 NIC MAP Primary and Secondary Markets. 

4Q 2025 Market Fundamentals by Care Segment – CCRC (All) vs. Non-CCRC 

The exhibit below compares the market performance of CCRCs and non-CCRCs by care segment for the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting year-over-year changes in occupancy, inventory, and asking rent growth.  

Occupancy. Consistent with prior quarterly results, CCRCs continued to outpace non-CCRCs in occupancy rates across all care segments. The largest occupancy difference between CCRCs and their non-CCRC counterparts in the fourth quarter of 2025 was in the independent living segment (3.9pps), followed by memory care (3.7pps) and assisted living (3.2pps) segment, with the smallest gap in the nursing care segment (1.6pps). The independent living segment recorded the highest occupancy rate among both CCRCs (93.3%) and non-CCRCs (89.4%). 

Non-CCRCs recorded higher year-over-year occupancy change in all care segments except for the nursing care segment, with independent living recording the highest change from the past year (2.4pps). While CCRCs overall have higher occupancy, the occupancy growth has been slower in recent quarters than the non-CCRC communities.  

Asking Rent. In reference to the table above, the average monthly asking rent (in dollars) for CCRCs continues to be higher than that of non-CCRCs across all care segments except for the independent living segment. CCRCs showed higher year-over-year rent growth in the memory care (4.2% to $9,269) segment. Non-CCRCs experienced stronger year-over-year rent growth in nursing care (4.8% to $410*) followed by the assisted living (4.5% to $6,779) segment. 

Note, these figures represent asking rates and do not reflect any discounts that may be applied. The nursing care average daily rent is the average private pay per diem rate. 

Inventory. Compared to the level a year ago, nursing care inventory declined in both CCRCs (1.0%) and non-CCRCs (0.4%), the largest drops among the care segments. Among CCRCs, positive inventory growth was seen in assisted living (0.6%) and memory care (0.4%), while independent living edged down slightly by 0.1%.  

For non-CCRCs, the strongest year-over-year inventory growth was recorded in assisted living (1.1%) and memory care (1.0%) segments, while independent living remained unchanged, and nursing care declined. 

Negative inventory growth can occur when units or beds are temporarily or permanently taken offline or converted to another care segment, offsetting any newly added supply. 

A Five-Year Look at Occupancy in CCRC Models: Entrance Fee vs. Rental CCRCs 

While entrance fee communities maintained a higher occupancy rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 at 92.4%, compared to 90.0% for rentals, the gap is narrowing as rental occupancy growth accelerates. In the fourth quarter of 2025, rental CCRCs posted 1.9 percentage points of year-over-year occupancy growth compared to a 1.2 percentage point gain in entrance fee communities. 

This occupancy growth differential reflects a larger trend. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, rental CCRCs have experienced faster occupancy growth compared to entrance fee models, accumulating 9.3 percentage points of growth, more than double the 4.5 percentage point gain in entrance fee CCRCs over the same period. This has translated into average annual occupancy gains of roughly 1.1 percentage points for entrance fee CCRCs and 2.3 percentage points for rental CCRCs over the four-year period.  

While occupancy across both CCRC models continued to move higher and end 2025 at strong levels, the gap in occupancy between them is gradually narrowing. 

Look for future articles from NIC to delve into the performance of CCRCs. 

Senior housing strongly outperformed all NCREIF property types in 2025, posting a 10.6% total return, more than double the Expanded NCREIF Property Index (NPI) total return of 4.9% and well ahead of the second highest return of 6.8% for retail properties.

For the most recent quarter alone, senior housing posted a total return of 3.3%, outperforming the broader NPI total return of 1.1% by 220 basis points.

Source: NCREIF

Senior housing capital appreciation in the fourth quarter was 2.0%, the highest quarterly gain since 2017. The capital appreciation return is the change in value net of any capital expenditures incurred during the quarter. Senior housing income return in the fourth quarter was also positive, yielding 1.4%.

These performance measures reflect the returns of 219 senior housing properties valued at $13.6 billion in the fourth quarter. Overall, the number of senior housing properties tracked within the NPI has grown significantly from the 56 properties initially tracked in 2003, a reflection of increased institutional investment in the property type.

Annualized Total Returns by NCREIF Property Type

By senior housing property subtype in the fourth quarter, assisted living (+3.7%) outperformed independent living (+2.8%) on a total return basis, which was a reversal of recent trends, and was driven by both higher income yield and higher capital appreciation in assisted living properties. For the full year 2025, however, independent living continued to outperform assisted living with a total return of 11.1% versus 10.0%, respectively.

Turning to market fundamentals, a fourth consecutive year of strong net absorption coupled with record low inventory growth propelled senior housing occupancy rates to 89.1%. Looking ahead, new supply is expected to remain moderate in the near term as the number of units under construction has fallen to levels last seen in 2012. With demand outpacing new supply, occupancy rates are on track to surpass 90% in 2026.

NIC’s Research & Analytics team presented findings during a webinar with NIC MAP clients on January 22, reviewing key senior housing data trends during the fourth quarter and full year 2025. Additionally, Traci Bild, CEO at Bild & Co, presented and analyzed sales and occupancy trends.

Key takeaways included the following: 

Takeaway #1: Occupancy Rates Climbed Higher

• The occupancy rate for senior housing rose 0.4 percentage points in the fourth quarter for the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets, reaching 89.1%.
• Meanwhile, the occupancy rate for the 68 Secondary Markets tracked by NIC MAP rose 0.3 percentage points in the fourth quarter to end the year slightly ahead of the Primary Markets at 90.0%.

Takeaway #2: Fourth Consecutive Year Occupancy Rate Increased 200+ Basis Points

• The occupancy rate for senior housing rose 2.2 percentage points in 2025 for the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets, marking the fourth consecutive year in which occupancy gained more than 200 basis points.
• Meanwhile, the occupancy rate for the Secondary Markets gained 1.6 percentage points in 2025.

Takeaway #3: New Record Low in Inventory Growth

• Turning to inventory growth, a continued decline in new supply arriving online also helped drive occupancy rates higher.
• The year 2025 was the lowest on record for both the Primary and Secondary Markets since NIC MAP began tracking this data.
• Looking ahead, the limited number of new units under construction today indicates new supply growth is unlikely to pick up in the near term.

Takeaway #4: Seven Markets Above 90% Occupied

• Seven of the 31 Primary Markets had occupancy rates above 90% in the fourth quarter, compared to five in the previous quarter, led by Boston (93.1%), San Francisco (91.9%), and Baltimore (91.9%).
• Only five markets had occupancy rates below 87%, with the lowest being Miami (85.4%), Atlanta (85.5%), and San Jose (86.1%).
• There are several notable markets where occupancy rates today are near or slightly above their all-time highs, such as San Francisco (91.9%), Los Angeles (90.5%), Dallas (89.1%), and Chicago (89.0%).