Strategic Value-Based Care Partnerships: How They Can Support Senior Living Operators 

By Susan DiMickele, President & CEO, National Church Residences, and Jacob Swint, VP, Strategic Growth & Operations Support, National Church Residences 

Value-based care (VBC) has moved from an emerging concept to an operating reality, reshaping expectations around outcomes, cost, and resident experience. Yet many senior living operators are still asking a fundamental question: “What does a strategic VBC partnership look like from the operator’s seat?” In an increasingly complex environment, the distinction between a vendor relationship and a strategic partnership with a primary care group determines whether an operator experiences marginal improvement or a meaningful transformation of their value proposition. 

What Makes a Value-Based Care Partnership Truly Strategic for Operators 

From an operator perspective, a VBC partnership with a primary care group becomes strategic when it begins with shared accountability. The most effective partnerships align not only around clinical outcomes, but around the metrics operators manage every day: resident length of stay, occupancy, staff turnover, and family satisfaction. If a clinical partner cannot directly influence the operator’s core business drivers, the relationship is unlikely to deliver sustained impact. 

A second hallmark of strategic partnership is the presence of a deeply integrated clinical model tailored specifically for senior housing. Across the National Church Residences portfolio and our primary care medical group, At Your Door – Visiting Healthcare Services, we have seen the effectiveness of onsite primary care teams supported by physicians, advanced practice providers, registered nurses, care managers, and social workers. This interdisciplinary structure reduces unnecessary emergency department use, improves continuity of care, and supports the “Quadruple Aim” of enhanced care quality, lower cost, improved experience, and reduced staff burnout. 

Most critically, strategic partnership requires aligned incentives and shared value creation. For years, external medical groups have operated within senior housing but retained most of the economic upside associated with VBC performance. Yet senior living operators have been creating value for decades through stable housing, early issue identification, and daily resident support. A true partnership recognizes this contribution by offering operators a meaningful seat at the table, including the ability to participate financially in VBC outcomes. 

How to Approach Partnership Strategy in a Still-Evolving VBC Landscape 

The VBC landscape continues to evolve with new payment models, shifting benchmarks, and increasing expectations for risk management. Operators cannot rely on prediction alone; they need partnerships that are flexible, resilient, and prepared for what’s next. 

Operators should look for partners with experience across multiple reimbursement arrangements and the ability to manage risk, matching the operator’s readiness rather than forcing a one-size-fits-all model. They should also prioritize partners who are willing to provide them with access to VBC programs, especially as many operators lack the capital or internal expertise to develop clinical capabilities in-house. 

The right primary care partner lowers the barrier to entry by providing the infrastructure, compliance, reporting, and staffing necessary to support the operator while enabling operators to stay focused on resident experience, staffing, and community operations. When done well, these partnerships can unlock an additional revenue stream for the senior living operator while strengthening key business outcomes including occupancy, length of stay, and staff retention. 

Reflections to Help Leaders Form Partnerships More Intentionally 

Several observations can guide operators as they evaluate potential VBC partners: 

  • Start with the “why,” not the reimbursement model. Anchor decisions in resident needs, operator pain points, and long-term goals. 
  • Prioritize operational integration. The clinical team must become part of the community’s daily rhythm and not a visiting external entity. 
  • Demand radical transparency. Data access, performance review, and shared decision-making are non-negotiable in VBC. 
  • Shared financial participation. Operators should insist on direct participation in financial upside. 
  • Evaluate cultural alignment. Trust, mission fit, and communication often matter as much as clinical expertise. 
  • Consider risk management and risk tolerance. Understanding a partner’s ability to manage, share, and communicate risk exposure is essential for long-term sustainability in VBC. 

The senior living industry is at a pivotal moment. VBC-aligned primary care partnerships are no longer experimental. They are becoming foundational infrastructure for the future of senior living. It is no longer a question of “if” a senior living operator should be participating in VBC programs and a matter of “how”. Organizations like NIC are essential in educating and convening leaders around this shift so operators can finally be recognized and rewarded for the value they have been creating for decades. 

Independent Living Segment Sees Wider Rate Discounts in 4Q 2025 

Data from the recently released 4Q 2025 NIC MAP Actual Rate Report showed that:  

In 4Q 2025, discounts between asking and initial rates widened for the independent living (IL) segment and narrowed for the memory care (MC) segment. 

  • For the IL segment, discounts between asking and initial rates averaged 12.1% ($581) in December 2025, equivalent to a 1.5-month discount on an annualized basis, up from a 0.9-month discount in September 2025. 
  • For the assisted living (AL) segment, average initial rates were 8.0% ($556) below asking rates in December 2025, translating to a 1.0-month discount on an annualized basis, up slightly from a 0.9-month discount in September 2025. 
  • Discount between asking rates and initial rates in the MC segment averaged 8.2% ($750) in December 2025, translating to a 1.0-month discount on an annualized basis, down from a 1.3-month discount in September 2025. 

Move-ins outpaced move-outs for the IL and AL segments in the fourth quarter of 2025. 

  • The percentage of move-ins for the IL segment averaged 2.0%, while move-outs averaged 1.6% in December 2025. 
  • For the AL segment, move-ins averaged 3.0% of inventory in December, while move-outs averaged 2.8%. 
  • In the MC segment, both move-ins and move-outs averaged 3.3% of inventory in December 2025.   

Additional key takeaways are available to NIC MAP subscribers in the full report.    

About the Report: The NIC MAP Seniors Housing Actual Rates Report provides aggregate national data from approximately 300,000 units within more than 2,500 properties across the U.S., operated by over 50 senior housing providers. The operators included in the current sample tend to be larger, professionally managed, and investment-grade operators as a requirement for participation is restricted to operators who manage five  or more properties. Visit the NIC MAP website for more information. 

Senior Housing Transaction Environment 

2025 represented a year of accelerating transaction activity in the senior housing market as participants looked to capitalize on the unprecedented supply/demand fundamentals within the industry. Momentum gathered throughout the year, with activity notably picking up in the second half of the year. The activity represented both smaller, as well as large transactions. 

The robust M&A market has been driven by a demographic megatrend that is set to further accelerate with the leading edge of the Baby Boomer generation turning 80 this year. The 80+ age group – the key cohort for senior housing – is projected to grow by 28 percent over the next five years. At the same time, new development remains at historically low levels, and even the most attractive development projects are still a ways away from penciling. In this environment, participants are looking to acquire now and reap the benefits of the attractive fundamentals. 

In addition, senior housing is a large, highly fragmented market. Private investors, owner-operators and non-profits continue to own about 86% of this approximately $450 billion to $600 billion market, with long-term, REIT ownership still only in the mid-teens. This provides ample room for continued transaction growth. 

Throughout the year, REITs with experience in senior housing represented the largest and most active buyer group. Senior housing is a unique asset class that requires deep expertise for success. REITs with a track record for completing transactions, scalable operational platforms and strong industry relationships, including effective collaboration with outstanding senior housing operators, have competitive advantages in generating deal flow and long-term success.  

The largest REITs have led the way. Ventas (VTR) alone closed $4.8 billion of senior housing investments from 4Q24 through February 2, 2026. Healthpeak (DOC) also announced the formation and planned initial public offering of Janus Living, a new REIT dedicated to senior housing. 

Smaller-to-mid-sized REITs have also increased activity. American Healthcare REIT (AHR) closed $575 million in 2025 through November, National Health Investors (NHI) closed $392 million in 2025 as of December, Sabra (SBRA) closed more than $280 million through 3Q25 and CareTrust REIT (CTRE) entered into the SHOP business with its first acquisition for $40 million. 

In November, there was also a notable industry merger with Sonida Senior Living (SNDA) announcing a merger with CNL Healthcare Properties. The $1.8 billion deal, set to close in the first half of 2026, sets up the newly combined company to further compete in the acquisition market. 

Just as notably, private buyers – including numerous newer private equity funds led by industry veterans and groups that are new entrants into senior housing altogether – have started competing for deals. Transactions in the $30 million to $100 million range, which are more accessible for a wider range of buyers compared to larger transactions, are where competition is the heaviest.  

Heading into 2026, expect competition for deals to continue heating up as investors try to position themselves ahead of the most attractive parts of the supply/demand curve. Those with a successful transaction track record and proven platform remain positioned to win in an increasingly competitive environment. And despite the increase in overall competition, there remain significant opportunities to acquire assets at a discount to replacement cost and that deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns across a range of investment profiles. 

Overall, the senior housing industry has unprecedented momentum, and the transaction market is no different. The investment market will play an integral role in determining who are the biggest and best participants as the industry’s demand continues to accelerate. 

Senior Care Bankruptcy Trends 

NIC partnered with Gibbins Advisors to prepare the first ever industry-specific bankruptcy report to examine not only recent filings, but also data going back prior to the pandemic for a historical perspective of trends. While bankruptcy data is a trailing measure of distress, it is an important measure for industry participants to track when monitoring the overall health of the senior housing and care sector.  

There are several key findings, which are profiled in detail in the full report. A summary of those key takeaways is below.  

  • Senior Care tends to comprise approximately one quarter of all Healthcare sector Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. Senior Care and Pharmaceuticals are the two highest subsectors within healthcare for bankruptcy filings, with the two representing nearly half of all filings between 2019-2025.  
  • In 2019 and from 2021 to 2025, Senior Care Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings ranged from 10 to 15 per year. In 2025, the sector recorded 12 bankruptcy filings, representing a modest increase from 10 filings in 2024 and broadly consistent with the average observed over the prior four-year period. 
  • The number of Senior Care bankruptcy filings since 2019 is relatively evenly distributed between CCRCs, SNFs, and Senior Living segments. 
  • Almost 98% of Senior Care Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings in the past seven years have been companies with less than $500M in liabilities. Just two cases in the period from 2019 to 2025 had liabilities in excess of $500M.  

We encourage readers to view the full report.

In or around August 2026, Gibbins Advisors will produce another industry-specific report, reflecting updated information for the first half of 2026.  

CCRC Performance 4Q 2025 

The following analysis examines broader occupancy trends, year-over-year changes in inventory, and same-store asking rent growth – by care segment – within 1,043 Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs) and 13,737 non-CCRCs in the 99 NIC MAP Primary and Secondary Markets. 

4Q 2025 Market Fundamentals by Care Segment – CCRC (All) vs. Non-CCRC 

The exhibit below compares the market performance of CCRCs and non-CCRCs by care segment for the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting year-over-year changes in occupancy, inventory, and asking rent growth.  

Occupancy. Consistent with prior quarterly results, CCRCs continued to outpace non-CCRCs in occupancy rates across all care segments. The largest occupancy difference between CCRCs and their non-CCRC counterparts in the fourth quarter of 2025 was in the independent living segment (3.9pps), followed by memory care (3.7pps) and assisted living (3.2pps) segment, with the smallest gap in the nursing care segment (1.6pps). The independent living segment recorded the highest occupancy rate among both CCRCs (93.3%) and non-CCRCs (89.4%). 

Non-CCRCs recorded higher year-over-year occupancy change in all care segments except for the nursing care segment, with independent living recording the highest change from the past year (2.4pps). While CCRCs overall have higher occupancy, the occupancy growth has been slower in recent quarters than the non-CCRC communities.  

Asking Rent. In reference to the table above, the average monthly asking rent (in dollars) for CCRCs continues to be higher than that of non-CCRCs across all care segments except for the independent living segment. CCRCs showed higher year-over-year rent growth in the memory care (4.2% to $9,269) segment. Non-CCRCs experienced stronger year-over-year rent growth in nursing care (4.8% to $410*) followed by the assisted living (4.5% to $6,779) segment. 

Note, these figures represent asking rates and do not reflect any discounts that may be applied. The nursing care average daily rent is the average private pay per diem rate. 

Inventory. Compared to the level a year ago, nursing care inventory declined in both CCRCs (1.0%) and non-CCRCs (0.4%), the largest drops among the care segments. Among CCRCs, positive inventory growth was seen in assisted living (0.6%) and memory care (0.4%), while independent living edged down slightly by 0.1%.  

For non-CCRCs, the strongest year-over-year inventory growth was recorded in assisted living (1.1%) and memory care (1.0%) segments, while independent living remained unchanged, and nursing care declined. 

Negative inventory growth can occur when units or beds are temporarily or permanently taken offline or converted to another care segment, offsetting any newly added supply. 

A Five-Year Look at Occupancy in CCRC Models: Entrance Fee vs. Rental CCRCs 

While entrance fee communities maintained a higher occupancy rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 at 92.4%, compared to 90.0% for rentals, the gap is narrowing as rental occupancy growth accelerates. In the fourth quarter of 2025, rental CCRCs posted 1.9 percentage points of year-over-year occupancy growth compared to a 1.2 percentage point gain in entrance fee communities. 

This occupancy growth differential reflects a larger trend. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, rental CCRCs have experienced faster occupancy growth compared to entrance fee models, accumulating 9.3 percentage points of growth, more than double the 4.5 percentage point gain in entrance fee CCRCs over the same period. This has translated into average annual occupancy gains of roughly 1.1 percentage points for entrance fee CCRCs and 2.3 percentage points for rental CCRCs over the four-year period.  

While occupancy across both CCRC models continued to move higher and end 2025 at strong levels, the gap in occupancy between them is gradually narrowing. 

Look for future articles from NIC to delve into the performance of CCRCs.