The following analysis examines the broader occupancy trends, year-over-year changes in inventory, and same-store asking rent growth – by care segment – within 1,054 entrance fee and rental CCRCs in the 99 NIC MAP Primary and Secondary Markets.

2Q 2025 Unit Type Distribution in Entrance Fee vs. Rental CCRCs

The exhibit below explores the distribution of unit type across entrance fee and rental CCRCs, revealing a greater prevalence of independent living units in entrance fee CCRCs.

In Entrance Fee CCRCs, the data showed that independent living units represent 65.7% of the total inventory in the second quarter of 2025 – the largest share across all care segments and payment types. This was followed by nursing care (18.1%), assisted living (12.2%), and memory care (3.9%).

Entrance fee CCRCs typically attract residents who plan ahead for long-term needs, often moving in and choosing independent living as their initial option while still relatively healthy, active, and not in need of daily assistance. Over time, as their care needs increase, they may transition to other care segments, but the majority of inventory remains independent living.

In Rental CCRCs, independent living (39.4%) and nursing care (38.2%) each represent a notable share of inventory, while assisted living accounts for 17.4%, and memory care for 4.9%, of inventory.

The near-even split between independent living and nursing care in rental CCRCs suggests a different dynamic. The relatively lower financial barrier may attract residents who delay moving in until they require more care, leading to a higher proportion of assisted living units, memory care units, and nursing care beds, compared to entrance fee CCRCs.

2Q 2025 Market Fundamentals by Care Segment – Entrance Fee vs. Rental CCRCs

The exhibit below compares the market performance of entrance fee CCRCs and rental CCRCs by care segment for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting year-over-year changes in occupancy, inventory, and asking rent growth.

Occupancy. Entrance fee CCRCs continued to outpace rental CCRCs in occupancy rate across all care segments. The highest occupancy in entrance fee CCRCs was seen in the independent living segment (93.5%), while memory care segment (91.4%) has the highest occupancy rate in rental CCRCs.

The difference in the second quarter 2025 occupancy rates between entrance fee CCRCs and rental CCRCs was largest in the independent living segment (2.4pps), followed by nursing care segment (1.3pps), and assisted living segment (0.6pps), with the smallest gap in the memory care segment (0.4pps).

Rental CCRCs showed higher year-over-year occupancy growth in independent living (2.1pps), assisted living (3.0pps), and memory care (2.9pps) segments. This is a pattern that has been consistent in recent quarters.

Asking Rent. The monthly average asking rent for entrance fee CCRCs across all care segments remained higher than rental CCRCs. While the actual rent figures were higher for entrance fee CCRCs, the rent growth was higher within the rental CCRCs. Rental CCRCs showed higher year-over-year rent growth in assisted living (4.3% to $6,360), memory care (4.1% to $8,132), and nursing care (4.7% to $407^*) segments. Note, these figures are for asking rates and do not consider any discount that may occur.

Inventory. Compared to the year-earlier level, rental CCRCs experienced inventory decline across all care segments. The largest decrease occurred in the assisted living segment (-2.6%), followed by independent living segment (-2.5%), and nursing care segment (-2.1%), with the memory care segment (-1.1%) seeing the smallest decline.

In contrast, entrance fee CCRCs showed mixed trends: assisted living saw the largest year-over-year inventory growth (1.4%), while nursing care inventory experienced the largest decline (-1.0%).

Negative inventory growth can occur when units/beds are temporarily or permanently taken offline or converted to another care segment, outweighing added inventory. This attrition of units, coupled with record-low development activity in the sector, has delivered this trend of an overall decline in inventory.

Look for future articles from NIC to delve into the performance of CCRCs.

In this article, NIC Analytics revisits senior housing unit mix (the proportion of studios, one-bedroom, two-bedroom units, and increasingly, even three-bedroom or larger units), and occupancy trends across independent living (IL) and assisted living (AL) properties using data from the second quarter of 2025. The analysis offers a current snapshot of how unit sizes are distributed, how they are performing, what has changed over the last decade, and what is taking place with new senior housing developments coming on the market today.

Key Takeaways:

• While unit mix has not changed much across the last decade, rising occupancy in larger units, especially in assisted living, signals a shift in preferences among segments of the demand base.
• Developers are responding to these changing preferences, with more two- and three- bedroom units entering the pipeline.
• A successful unit mix balances care needs with new lifestyle expectations and shared living potential.

Current Unit Mix: Studios Still Dominate Assisted Living, But Independent Living Sees Size Diversity

Across all senior housing properties (IL + AL combined), studios make up the largest share of the unit mix at 40%, followed closely by one-bedroom units at 38%, and two-bedroom units at 18%, then a small share – just 3% – consists of three-bedroom or larger options.

However, when broken down by property type, important distinctions emerge: Independent living properties skew toward larger units (one- and two-bedrooms) while assisted living properties are heavily weighted toward smaller units (studios).

These differences may reflect the functional and financial needs of residents. Independent living residents often prioritize space, privacy, and lifestyle, while assisted living residents may prioritize affordability and accessibility, especially as care needs increase. Additionally, more couples generally reside in independent living than in assisted living, which generally translates into larger units.

Occupancy by Unit Type: Bigger Units, Higher Occupancy?

Occupancy patterns as of the second quarter of 2025 offer further insights. Larger units are performing better across both property types. While assisted living still maintains relatively high occupancy for studio units, there is now a clear pattern between unit size and occupancy across the board, particularly in independent living. This suggests increasing resident preference for more spacious accommodations, even among residents requiring assistance.

A Look Back: Stability in Mix, But Shifts in Preference

Interestingly, the unit mix distribution has not changed dramatically over the past decade. Studios continued to dominate assisted living, and independent living remained the more diverse offering in terms of size. But what has changed is resident demand for larger units.

A decade ago, occupancy was relatively flat across unit types. The notable exception was 3+ bedroom assisted living units, which hovered in the mid-70% range, suggesting they were mismatched with the needs or preferences of residents at the time. In 2025, however, occupancy for those units is closer to 88%, hinting that preferences in independent living may be bleeding into assisted living as residents transition through the continuum of care.

This trend may reflect a generational shift in expectations, or perhaps a cohort of residents entering assisted living with greater financial means or stronger lifestyle preferences for space, privacy, and comfort.

Senior Housing Development Trends Confirm the Shift

The changing preferences in unit mix are not just showing up in occupancy, they are also reflected in what is being built. A decade ago, studios made up over half (51%) of all senior housing units under construction. In 2025, that share has dropped to 35%, while construction of larger units has materially increased. Notably, two-bedroom or larger units, once just 14% of new development, now account for 38% of new units coming onto the market. This shift suggests that developers are responding to the changing preferences among segments of the demand base.

In conclusion, market factors such as location, demographics, and income profiles all influence unit mix decisions, along with the vision of the owner or operator. While studios remain essential, particularly in assisted living, where affordability and accessibility are key, larger units are increasingly demonstrating stronger occupancy performance and emerging as a high-performing niche.

Looking ahead, larger units may gain further traction among middle-income residents seeking shared living arrangements that lower costs while enhancing efficiency and social connection. Conversely, there may be opportunities to market the less desirable studios to a middle-income senior through strategic market positioning. As the aging population continues to transform, the most successful properties will be those that align care needs with lifestyle aspirations, designing unit mixes that reflect not only acuity, but also the changing values and expectations of the next generation of residents.

Note this analysis only includes properties reporting the unit mixes within the senior housing properties. This means that properties with unknown unit mixes were excluded from the analysis.

Senior housing posted a positive total return of 2.08% in the second quarter of 2025, bringing year-to-date returns to 4.00%, the highest NCREIF property type return for the first half of the year.  

Senior housing in the second quarter outperformed the broader Expanded NCREIF Property Index (NPI) by 85 basis points, with the index posting a total return of 1.23%. Senior housing capital appreciation in the second quarter was positive with valuations increasing 0.72%. The capital appreciation return is the change in value net of any capital expenditures incurred during the quarter. Senior housing income return in the second quarter was also positive, yielding 1.36%. For the broader NPI in the second quarter, both capital appreciation (+0.04%) and income yield (+1.19%) were also positive.  

By senior housing property subtype, independent living (+2.15%) outperformed assisted living (+1.99%) in the second quarter. In recent years, independent living has also outperformed assisted living over the one-, three-, and five-year periods. This outperformance may be driven by higher margins typically generated in lower acuity settings such as independent living, which require less staffing and labor expenses than higher acuity settings such as assisted living. Additionally, independent living has had higher occupancy rates during this period. Over the longer run, since NCREIF began tracking returns data for these subtypes roughly a decade ago, both assisted living and independent living posted similar returns averaging more than 5.5% annually. 

Compared to other NCREIF property types over the 10-, 15-, and 20-year periods, senior housing was the strongest property type except for industrial and self-storage, outperforming the NPI on an annualized basis by 52, 41, and 297 basis points, respectively. Since the 2003 inception of NCREIF’s senior housing historical series, income yield drove roughly 60% of senior housing total returns, while price appreciation contributed roughly 40%. These performance measures reflect the returns of 211 senior housing properties valued at $12.38 billion in the second quarter. Overall, the number of senior housing properties tracked within the NPI has grown significantly from the 56 properties initially tracked in 2003.

Since Inception (2Q 2003)

10-Year (2Q 2015)

Senior housing market fundamentals remained positive in the second quarter, with the occupancy rate for the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets increasing 0.8 percentage points to 88.1%, driven by net absorption of senior housing units outpacing the number of new units arriving online. Occupied units reached another record high in the second quarter, while year-over-year inventory growth fell below 1.0% for the first time since NIC MAP began tracking this data in 2006. By property type, occupancy rates for independent living have made slightly higher gains in recent quarters than assisted living, which is a reversal of trends in 2022 and 2023. In the second quarter, independent living increased to an average occupancy rate of 89.7%, while assisted living increased to 86.4%.

Source: NCREIF, 2Q 2025, Unlevered Annualized Total Returns

The NIC Analytics team presented findings during a webinar with NIC MAP clients on July 17, to review key senior housing data trends during the second quarter of 2025. Additionally, Mitch Brown, Principal at Senior Housing Consulting, Matt Pyzyk, Managing Director of Acquisitions at Green Courte Partners, and Ben Burke, Managing Partner at Headwaters Group, all members of NIC’s Active Adult Focus Area Committee, joined Caroline Clapp, Senior Principal at NIC, for a conversation on development pipelines, acquisition trends, transactions, and valuations for active adult rental communities.

Key takeaways included the following: 

Takeaway #1: Senior Housing Occupancy Rates Climb Above 88%; Active Adult Above 92%

• The senior housing occupancy rate for the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets rose 0.8 percentage points to 88.1% in the second quarter, driven by robust net absorption in both independent living and assisted living.
• Active adult rental communities were 92.3% occupied as of the second quarter.

Takeaway #2: Baby Boomers Driving Demand for Independent Living and Active Adult

• By property type, occupancy rates for independent living have made slightly higher gains in recent quarters than assisted living, which is a reversal of trends in 2022 and 2023.
• Over the three quarters ending June 30, independent living occupancy rates gained 0.4 percentage points more than assisted living, potentially indicating a pickup in demand from older Baby Boomers, while above 90% occupancy rates in active adult rental communities reflect demand from younger Baby Boomers.

Takeaway #3: Senior Housing Inventory Growth Fell Below 1% for First Time 

• Annual inventory growth fell to 0.97% year-over-year, falling below 1% for the first time since NIC MAP began tracking this data in 2006.
• As a result of declining new construction in recent years, senior housing inventory is shrinking in several markets where property closures or units being converted to other uses outweigh the number of new communities or units replacing them.

Takeaway #4: Active Adult Rental Communities Offer a Wide Range of Pricing Typically Below Senior Housing

• Among the 15 largest active adult rental markets, most metro areas offer a wide range of pricing, while some of the more affordable markets have somewhat tighter rent ranges.
• Overall, even the highest priced markets with median average monthly rents of more than $3,000 are below traditional senior housing asking rents, providing an alternative for older adults who desire to downsize from their current homes but do not yet need or want the services and care provided in traditional independent living.

Learn the latest on the active adult property type and connect with others in the field at NIC’s Active Adult Boot Camp coming up September 10 in Austin, Texas. Registration is now open! Opportunities are also available in the NIC Academy Active Adult Communities specialty course, available on demand, and during the 2025 NIC Fall Conference.

Workforce challenges in senior housing and care are not simply operational hurdles but are long-term signals of broader shifts across the entire care economy. Both residents and staff are central to the success equation.

NIC recently kicked off a webinar series focused on one of the most pressing challenges facing the senior housing and care industry: the workforce.

As part of the first webinar, hosted on June 3^rd, NIC Analytics shared data-informed insights showing how workforce dynamics are changing in senior housing and skilled nursing. From shifts in employment across care settings to the projected need for hundreds of thousands of new direct care workers, the numbers tell a powerful story.

This article highlights the top takeaways from that session, insights that point not only to the scale of the challenge but to the opportunity to rethink job design, attract new talent, and build a more resilient workforce model for the decade ahead.

Key Takeaways:

• For the first time, assisted living has surpassed CCRCs and home health has overtaken skilled nursing in the total workforce of production and nonsupervisory employees. CCRCs and skilled nursing still have not returned to pre-pandemic workforce levels, while their adjacent counterparts have not only recovered but expanded.

• More than half of the workforce in the senior housing and skilled nursing sectors is made up of four care roles (care aides, nursing assistants, LPNs/LVNs, and RNs), making staffing models highly dependent on healthcare-specific roles.
• Senior housing and care competes with multiple sectors for the same talent but holds a smaller share of the national workforce. The top occupations in senior housing and nursing care are also in high demand in home health, individual and family services, and hospitals.
• Over 87% of these four care roles are women, and more than half are mothers with children under 18, highlighting the central role of family dynamics in staffing stability.
• There is a potential untapped opportunity to engage more men in caregiving roles. Given the decline in male workforce participation, senior housing and nursing care can design new pathways to attract and retain men in care roles, an underutilized labor pool in the space.
• Workforce demand is rising faster than population growth. While the U.S. population is projected to grow just 4% by 2033, the 75+ population and senior care resident base are expected to grow nearly 50%. By 2033, the U.S. will need 660,000 more workers in just four core roles – care aides, RNs, LPNs/LVNs, and nursing assistants – to meet projected senior housing and skilled nursing demand.

• While wages in senior housing and care have generally remained competitive with adjacent healthcare sectors, long-term workforce growth is not just about pay. However, rising wages, especially since 2021, have tightened margins especially for high acuity settings.
• Senior housing is well-positioned to lead. Compared to institutional healthcare, senior housing has more flexibility to pilot new scheduling models, part-time pathways, or hybrid roles, appealing to caregivers, mothers, men, and older workers.
• Automation is not a full solution, but it is part of the answer. AI and technology cannot replace hands-on care, but they can improve efficiency, reduce burnout, and allow staff to focus on residents, not paperwork.
• The future will not be built on higher pay alone, it will be built on better work. The opportunity ahead is not just to compete for talent, but to redefine what it means to build and belong to a senior housing and care workforce, invest in fast-track training pipelines, and create the kinds of jobs people want to stay in.

Thanks again to everyone who joined the webinar, and to my fellow speakers – Lisa McCracken, Head of Research & Analytics, NIC, Dana Ritchie, Associate Vice President, AHCA/NCAL, Ashante Abubakar, Vice President of Workforce Development, Argentum – for a great discussion.

Watch the full webinar replay here. Download the slide deck here for more insights and data.