January 4th 2024
Welcome to the reimagined NIC Insider. This new information tool from NIC provides insights and opinions from industry experts as part of our commitment to increasing access and choice for America’s older adults.
Now sent biweekly, the NIC Insider consolidates insights formerly found in NIC Notes, Recap, and Insider emails. Subsequently, you will receive fewer, but more focused emails from NIC with easier access to the information you need in today’s challenging and rapidly changing market.
This latest NIC case study features United Church Homes and details how their organization has committed to developing and operating middle market housing options for older adults in multiple Ohio markets. They are creating middle market senior housing opportunities through both new development and also acquisition activity with varied offerings for low-middle, middle and middle-high cohorts. On average, their middle market portfolio offers rates starting at 53% of metro market independent living rates and unbundles services such as home care and dining that vary depending on consumer preferences. Access this case study along with other insightful case studies here.
We are all well-aware of the demographic trends unfolding in the U.S. In 2025, the first Boomer will turn 80. Are we prepared for the implications of the aging population and is there enough supply to meet the demand for senior housing & care in the years ahead? Calculations by NIC MAP Vision project the need for an additional 200,000 additional senior housing units by 2025. Dig deeper into this supply-demand dynamic here.
What will be the catalyst that spurs transaction activity in 2024?
“As we kick off 2024, I think market participants will be looking for certainty in the capital markets coupled with certainty in stabilized operations. This certainty will allow both buyers and sellers to gain the confidence needed to begin to transact again.”
Senior Managing Director and Head of Senior Living Sectors
Cushman & Wakefield
“Partially interest rates (treasuries plus credit spreads for perm debt which is one of the two primary drivers of real estate value), but partially investor sentiment that the market has finally bottomed. This will come with rate cuts, therefore increasing investor confidence, which will equate to sellers with pent-up transaction needs (debt maturities, fund maturities, etc.) to act.”
Vice Chairman, Co-Head Senior Housing
“Things have felt frozen. While I expect construction and new developments to remain low in 2024, loan maturities and private equity end of fund life will force sales and portfolio recaps and create opportunities for M&A.”
NIC-sponsored research by Harvard foretells affordability challenges, as millions of Baby Boomers increasingly need long-term care. Most adults over the age of 75 cannot afford assisted living or home-based care, according to Housing America’s Older Adults 2023, a new report by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies funded through a grant from NIC. When long-term care services are added to housing costs, only 14% of single people 75 and older can afford a daily visit of just four hours from a paid caregiver, and just 13% can afford to move to assisted living based on their income alone. Find key report takeaways here.
“The role NIC plays is to be the unquestionable source of truth for all stakeholders regarding data and research about our senior population and for all avenues of senior care and support services here in the U.S.”
In 2022, NIC released its five-year strategic plan and revised its committee structure to align with the strategic objectives and needed implementation teams. In early 2024, NIC will launch a new Research Committee, led by Chairperson MJ Ritschel of Kisco Senior Living. Learn about this implementation committee and MJ’s vision for the important work of this group of NIC volunteers here.