NIC Research Insights
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The Current State of the Economy and Implications for Seniors Housing Occupancy
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Home prices have taken a slight step back on the path to recovery according to recent S&P/Case-Shiller
data. After five consecutive months of home price appreciation, data for October and November show a
slight retraction. In the most recent two months for which data is available, the Composite-20 index
has declined -0.3%, foreshadowing a quarterly net decline in home prices unless December shows significant
improvement (unadjusted for seasonality).
The strong relationship between home prices and occupancy suggests that occupancy will likely experience
some resistance on the road to recovery. The improvement in home prices coincided with the 0.3% increase
in seniors housing occupancy in 3Q09, with occupancy likely benefiting from the improvement in housing.
But with home prices likely declining in 4Q09, what will this mean for occupancy?
Although home prices may have reached a resistance point, it is important to note the overall economy
is experiencing net growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released the advanced estimate
of 4Q09 GDP, which rose at an annual pace of 5.7%. This should mark consecutive quarters of economic
growth, although most of the 5.7% can be attributed to the government stimulus plan. However, the aggregate
GDP for the United States is still at levels from the first half of 2008, representing a year and a
half of lost economic growth.
The employment market still represents a significant hurdle before a full recovery can begin. During
January, an additional 20,000 jobs were shed according to the nonfarm payroll totals released by the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The pace of the job losses has improved greatly from the first half
of 2009, but the economy is still waiting for sustained job creation. More and more economists believe
this will be a jobless recovery. Until job creation happens, assisted living occupancy is likely to
face resistance due to decreased numbers of adult children being able to contribute to financing for
care.
For current market-by-market information on seniors housing performance, please visit
www.nicmap.org
Sources Referenced:
- NIC MAP® Data & Analysis Service
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Seniors Housing & Care
Industry Calendar
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| February 2010: |
| 17-19 | AHLA Long Term Care and the Law Conference - Miami, FL |
| 22-24 | AAHSA Future of Aging Services Conference and Leadership Summit - Washington, DC |
| March 2010: |
| 2 | Access to Nature Webinar: The Value of Nature for Older Adults - 1:00 p.m. EST
led by Susan Rodiek, Ph.D., Professor in Health Facilities Design, the College of Architecture, Texas A&M University
sponsored by the Pioneer Network |
| 8 | NIC Conference Planning Committee Meeting, San Diego, CA |
| 8-10 | NIC National Skilled Nursing Investment Forum, Hilton, San Diego, CA |
| 9 | NIC Executive Committee Meeting, San Diego, CA |
| 9 | Access to Nature Webinar: Improving Outdoor Access for Older Adults - 1:00 p.m. EST
led by Susan Rodiek, Ph.D., Professor in Health Facilities Design, the College of Architecture, Texas A&M University
sponsored by the Pioneer Network |
| 9-11 | NIC Regional Symposium, Hilton, San Diego, CA |
| 11-12 | AHCA/NCAL Independent Owner Conference - Scottsdale, AZ |
| 16 | Access to Nature Webinar: Safe and Usable Outdoor Spaces for Older Adults - 1:00 p.m. EST
led by Susan Rodiek, Ph.D., Professor in Health Facilities Design, the College of Architecture, Texas A&M University
sponsored by the Pioneer Network |
| 24-25 | PREA Spring Conference, The InterContinental Boston, Boston, MA |
| April 2010: |
| 14-16 | Joint NIC/ ASHA Spring Meetings, Dallas, TX |
| 21-23 | AHCA/NCAL Spring Multifacility Conference for CEOs and Senior Executive Leaders - Clearwater Beach, FL |
| May 2010: |
| 1-4 | LTC 100 Conference, Key Biscayne, FL |
| 25-27 | ALFA Annual Conference & Expo, Phoenix, AZ |
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