|
NIC MAP 1Q09 Data Now Available
|
Occupancy and Rate Data Coverage Now Available
for the Top 100 Metro Markets
|
NIC MAP® recently released 1Q09 data and analysis for the top 100 metro markets. This data release
marks the expansion of occupancy and rate data coverage from the top 31 metro markets to the top 100
metro markets. With this expansion, NIC MAP data will now cover nearly two-thirds of the 75+ population
and over 12,300 market rate seniors housing and care properties, as compared to the 43 percent and 7,600
properties previously represented by the top 31 metro markets. With the expansion, NIC MAP also debuted
a new website, which provides subscribers with more powerful tools to help assess
risks and opportunities in the top 100 metros.
NIC MAP is the seniors housing and care industry's leading data provider, tracking revenue, occupancy,
supply and construction data in America's top 100 metro markets. NIC MAP data and analytics provide
the foundation for smarter investment decisions by providing valuable market data to owners/operators,
lenders/investors, market consultants and appraisers, allowing them to effectively compete in a changing
marketplace by identifying new opportunities and managing risk.
For the first time, you can now purchase NIC MAP Metro Market Reports for any of the Top 100 Metro Markets
for as little as $299. CLICK HERE
to purchase Your 1Q09 Metro Market Reports Today.
Contact Amber Jacobs for more information.
|
|
|
The Seniors Housing Lending Environment
|
|
Look for an interview with R. Buford Sears, senior vice president and manager, Health Care, Government
Banking & Not For Profit Banking and Commercial Marketing, M&T Bank, in the July edition of the NIC
Insider.
|
|
During the past two months, we have written about rising unemployment rates and declining house prices,
and we have examined signs that they may be stabilizing. In looking at recent indicators, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics* reported on June 5 that nonfarm payroll employment fell by 345,000 in May which is about
half of the average monthly decline of the prior six months and an improvement over April’s revised
payroll decline of 504,000. The National Association of Realtors** reported that existing home sales
for April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.7 million. This monthly sales figure has been
in the 4.5+ million range since November of last year. In addition, prices may be further stabilizing.
The median and mean (average) house prices associated with these sales figures appears to have bottomed
in January at $164,800 for the median and $206,700 for the mean. The April sales prices were $170,200
for the median and $213,100 for the mean. These trends, along with the GDP data on economic growth
in 1Q09,have led many economic forecasters to project an end to the recession later this year and
an improving job market in 2010.
Other statistics released in the last month include:
In the past year NIC Research, along with researchers from Red Capital Group has established that
several residential housing metrics have a statistical relationship to independent living occupancy
and absorption. In addition, NIC Research has recently completed a study which suggests a relationship
between unemployment rates and assisted living occupancy rates. NIC will continue to monitor these trends
and their impacts on seniors housing through our MAP data and analysis service.
* http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
** http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata
|
|
|
NIC MAP® Reports 1Q09 Data
|
As of the 1st quarter of 2009, the NIC MAP data and analysis service is now reporting key metrics on the
aggregate "Seniors Housing" property type. This property type includes all age restricted, service enriched
properties that have a majority of independent living, assisted living or memory care units. All such
properties that are located inside the top 100 MSAs, have 25 or more units and offer entrance fee or
market rate rental units are included in the seniors housing property type and tracked by NIC MAP. The
following information is reported for the top 31 MSAs.
All property occupancy including non-stabilized property (occupancy) for seniors housing properties
was at 89.2% in the 1st quarter of 2009 (1Q09). This is down 60 bps from 89.8% in 4Q08 and 200 bps from
91.2% in 1Q08. During 1Q09, absorption was negative at 2,455 units, while 1,095 units were added to
inventory. In the past year, some 4,059 seniors housing units have become vacant, while 6,545 units
have been added to inventory.
"In recent quarters, absorption has turned decidedly negative while inventory has kept growing," says
Michael Hargrave, VP NIC MAP. "This is acting to further the occupancy declines we have been witnessing
since the 1st quarter of 2007." In fact, occupancy is at a cyclical low for seniors housing properties
and is down 360 bps from its cyclical high of 92.8% set in 1Q07.
Conditions vary widely from market to market. Minneapolis, MN had the highest occupancy rate (of the
top 31 MSAs) in 1Q09 at 92.9%. Las Vegas, NV had the lowest occupancy rate at 83.0%. "In 1Q08, 11 of
the top 31 MSAs had seniors housing occupancy below 90%, while in 1Q09, 22 of the top 31 MSAs had occupancy
below 90%," says Hargrave.
Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service; www.nicmap.org
|
|
|
Industry Leaders to Present Timely Business and Financing Sessions at NIC Conference
|
The 19th Annual NIC Conference
Succeeding In a Capital-Constrained Environment: Emerging Stronger, Smarter, Better
Gain newfound clarity on the direction of the economy, the financial markets and the industry. Attendees
of the 19th Annual NIC Conference will hear from some of the best minds in seniors housing and care
during ten informative breakout sessions. Topics will help lenders, equity investors, operators and developers formulate
strategies for navigating choppy waters. Click on any of the below sessions to view more details:
CLICK HERE for more information about the 19th Annual NIC Conference.
A few sponsorships remain - please contact Elisa Freeman for more
information.
|
|
|
NIC Executive Circle Webcast:
|
|
A Mid-Year Capital Markets Review
|
Are the capital markets beginning to thaw and, if so, what will that mean for seniors housing and care
deals and refinancings for the second half of 2009? Join us for our upcoming Executive Circle webcast
at 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, June 23, where a panel of industry experts will give a Mid-Year Capital
Markets Review and outlook for the future.
Beth Mace, Director, AEW Research, AEW Capital Management, L.P. will moderate the discussion with panelists:
- Jan Svec, Senior Director-REITs, Fitch Ratings
- Scott Estes, SVP & CFO, Health Care REIT, Inc.
- Daniel J. Hermann, Senior Managing Director and Head of Senior Living Finance, Ziegler
- Michael Lanahan, Chairman, Greystone Communities, Inc.
The panel will address the following questions:
- What do leading economic indicators show about the state of the US economy and the commercial real estate
sector, in particular?
- Are the credit markets beginning to thaw and, if so, what will it mean for seniors housing and care
in the second half of 2009?
- What is the outlook for the corporate bond market for the remainder of 2009 and what does this mean
for health care REITs?
- Are there signs that the tax-exempt bond market is beginning to return and what are the implications
for not-for-profit seniors housing?
- How are entrance fee CCRCs performing relative to other forms of seniors housing and are there geographic
distinctions?
- What deals are taking place? What deals are likely to take place in the remainder of the year?
- Which seniors housing product types have been the most impacted by the recession and lack of access
to capital, and how are they responding?
Join us at 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, June 23 for this insightful review to get answers to these and
other questions from seniors housing experts.
CLICK HERE for more information about the NIC Executive Circle Webcast.
Please contact Sarah Cooper at (410) 267-0504 for more
information.
|
|
Seniors Housing & Care
Industry Calendar |
|
June 2009:
- 23 NIC Executive Circle Webcast, 11:00 a.m. EDT
September 2009:
- 1 2Q09 NIC MAP Subscriber Webcast, 11:00 a.m. EDT
- 22-23 NIC Executive Committee Meeting, Board of Directors Meeting, Operator Advisory
Board Meeting, and Committee/Task Force Meetings, Sheraton, Chicago, IL
- 23-25 19th ANNUAL NIC CONFERENCE, Sheraton, Chicago, IL
Click here to suggest adding an event to this calendar.
(denotes NIC Events)
|
|
|
|
If you are interested in
advertising in the
NIC Insider Newsletter,
please contact
Gary Infante at
webmaster@nic.org.
|
|
|
